Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high of 28°C for Tokyo on August 30 under persistent cloud cover with possible morning showers and light northerly winds shifting southerly. Recent stationary frontal activity has delivered cooler-than-average conditions and elevated rainfall through late August, suppressing daytime maxima after earlier peaks above 33°C. Ensemble model guidance clusters tightly around 26–29°C, with limited warming potential due to high humidity and limited solar insolation. This scientific consensus on modest afternoon temperatures under overcast skies underpins the market's concentration on 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while residual uncertainty around exact timing of any clearing or precipitation explains the spread into adjacent bins. Updated JMA guidance and regional observations on the morning of August 30 will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
27°C 46%
26°C 24%
28°C 22%
25°C 5%
NEW
$19,424 Vol.
NEW
$19,424 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
5%
26°C
24%
27°C
46%
28°C
22%
29°C
4%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 46%
26°C 24%
28°C 22%
25°C 5%
NEW
$19,424 Vol.
NEW
$19,424 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
$1,963 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$578 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,707 Vol.
5%
26°C
$2,332 Vol.
24%
27°C
$1,947 Vol.
46%
28°C
$3,392 Vol.
22%
29°C
$3,383 Vol.
4%
30°C
$1,209 Vol.
2%
31°C
$503 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,022 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$1,386 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high of 28°C for Tokyo on August 30 under persistent cloud cover with possible morning showers and light northerly winds shifting southerly. Recent stationary frontal activity has delivered cooler-than-average conditions and elevated rainfall through late August, suppressing daytime maxima after earlier peaks above 33°C. Ensemble model guidance clusters tightly around 26–29°C, with limited warming potential due to high humidity and limited solar insolation. This scientific consensus on modest afternoon temperatures under overcast skies underpins the market's concentration on 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while residual uncertainty around exact timing of any clearing or precipitation explains the spread into adjacent bins. Updated JMA guidance and regional observations on the morning of August 30 will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$19,424End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high of 28°C for Tokyo on August 30 under persistent cloud cover with possible morning showers and light northerly winds shifting southerly. Recent stationary frontal activity has delivered cooler-than-average conditions and elevated rainfall through late August, suppressing daytime maxima after earlier peaks above 33°C. Ensemble model guidance clusters tightly around 26–29°C, with limited warming potential due to high humidity and limited solar insolation. This scientific consensus on modest afternoon temperatures under overcast skies underpins the market's concentration on 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while residual uncertainty around exact timing of any clearing or precipitation explains the spread into adjacent bins. Updated JMA guidance and regional observations on the morning of August 30 will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,424End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high of 28°C for Tokyo on August 30 under persistent cloud cover with possible morning showers and light northerly winds shifting southerly. Recent stationary frontal activity has delivered cooler-than-average conditions and elevated rainfall through late August, suppressing daytime maxima after earlier peaks above 33°C. Ensemble model guidance clusters tightly around 26–29°C, with limited warming potential due to high humidity and limited solar insolation. This scientific consensus on modest afternoon temperatures under overcast skies underpins the market's concentration on 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while residual uncertainty around exact timing of any clearing or precipitation explains the spread into adjacent bins. Updated JMA guidance and regional observations on the morning of August 30 will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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