**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and high humidity are keeping nighttime temperatures elevated in the Seoul-Incheon area, positioning 22–23 °C as the most probable overnight minimums for August 31.** Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and multiple global models (including ECMWF and GFS runs referenced in recent outputs) show a minimum of 22 °C for Incheon on Monday, with nighttime lows generally holding in the 22–24 °C range under overcast skies and periods of heavy rain. Dew points near 22–23 °C and strong easterly flow limit radiational cooling, preventing sharper drops that would occur under clearer conditions. This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 22 °C (47.0 % implied probability) and 23 °C (31.5 %), while the 21 °C option (16.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty in model timing or localized cooling pockets. Recent model consensus has shown little change in the past 48 hours, with consistent signals of a stalled frontal system or enhanced monsoon influence maintaining these elevated lows. Historical late-August baselines for the region average closer to 21–22 °C under more typical clearing, but the current unsettled pattern favors the warmer side. Traders appear to be weighting the latest official guidance and ensemble spreads, with resolution hinging on the precise hourly minimum reported by Incheon International Airport observations. Updated model runs and any last-minute shifts in the rain shield remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 31?
22°C 47%
23°C 32%
21°C 17%
19°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
8%
20°C
5%
21°C
17%
22°C
47%
23°C
32%
24°C
6%
25°C
5%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
22°C 47%
23°C 32%
21°C 17%
19°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
8%
20°C
$40 Vol.
5%
21°C
$335 Vol.
17%
22°C
$57 Vol.
47%
23°C
$206 Vol.
32%
24°C
$33 Vol.
6%
25°C
$0 Vol.
5%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and high humidity are keeping nighttime temperatures elevated in the Seoul-Incheon area, positioning 22–23 °C as the most probable overnight minimums for August 31.**
Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and multiple global models (including ECMWF and GFS runs referenced in recent outputs) show a minimum of 22 °C for Incheon on Monday, with nighttime lows generally holding in the 22–24 °C range under overcast skies and periods of heavy rain. Dew points near 22–23 °C and strong easterly flow limit radiational cooling, preventing sharper drops that would occur under clearer conditions. This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 22 °C (47.0 % implied probability) and 23 °C (31.5 %), while the 21 °C option (16.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty in model timing or localized cooling pockets.
Recent model consensus has shown little change in the past 48 hours, with consistent signals of a stalled frontal system or enhanced monsoon influence maintaining these elevated lows. Historical late-August baselines for the region average closer to 21–22 °C under more typical clearing, but the current unsettled pattern favors the warmer side. Traders appear to be weighting the latest official guidance and ensemble spreads, with resolution hinging on the precise hourly minimum reported by Incheon International Airport observations. Updated model runs and any last-minute shifts in the rain shield remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$672End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and high humidity are keeping nighttime temperatures elevated in the Seoul-Incheon area, positioning 22–23 °C as the most probable overnight minimums for August 31.**
Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and multiple global models (including ECMWF and GFS runs referenced in recent outputs) show a minimum of 22 °C for Incheon on Monday, with nighttime lows generally holding in the 22–24 °C range under overcast skies and periods of heavy rain. Dew points near 22–23 °C and strong easterly flow limit radiational cooling, preventing sharper drops that would occur under clearer conditions. This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 22 °C (47.0 % implied probability) and 23 °C (31.5 %), while the 21 °C option (16.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty in model timing or localized cooling pockets.
Recent model consensus has shown little change in the past 48 hours, with consistent signals of a stalled frontal system or enhanced monsoon influence maintaining these elevated lows. Historical late-August baselines for the region average closer to 21–22 °C under more typical clearing, but the current unsettled pattern favors the warmer side. Traders appear to be weighting the latest official guidance and ensemble spreads, with resolution hinging on the precise hourly minimum reported by Incheon International Airport observations. Updated model runs and any last-minute shifts in the rain shield remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$672End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and high humidity are keeping nighttime temperatures elevated in the Seoul-Incheon area, positioning 22–23 °C as the most probable overnight minimums for August 31.** Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and multiple global models (including ECMWF and GFS runs referenced in recent outputs) show a minimum of 22 °C for Incheon on Monday, with nighttime lows generally holding in the 22–24 °C range under overcast skies and periods of heavy rain. Dew points near 22–23 °C and strong easterly flow limit radiational cooling, preventing sharper drops that would occur under clearer conditions. This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 22 °C (47.0 % implied probability) and 23 °C (31.5 %), while the 21 °C option (16.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty in model timing or localized cooling pockets. Recent model consensus has shown little change in the past 48 hours, with consistent signals of a stalled frontal system or enhanced monsoon influence maintaining these elevated lows. Historical late-August baselines for the region average closer to 21–22 °C under more typical clearing, but the current unsettled pattern favors the warmer side. Traders appear to be weighting the latest official guidance and ensemble spreads, with resolution hinging on the precise hourly minimum reported by Incheon International Airport observations. Updated model runs and any last-minute shifts in the rain shield remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions