Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions, reinforced by a low-pressure area, are driving cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and moderate southwesterly winds over Metro Manila, which limit radiative cooling and keep overnight minimum temperatures clustered in the mid-20s °C range. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model runs indicate nighttime lows near 24–26 °C for August 30 under overcast skies and high humidity, consistent with the tightly grouped market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. Historical August climatology for the region shows similar monsoon-suppressed diurnal ranges, while any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in steering flow could nudge the recorded minimum toward adjacent bins. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model cycles remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 30?
22°C 50%
24°C 50%
28°C 50%
30°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
50%
23°C
26%
24°C
28%
25°C
26%
26°C
28%
27°C
27%
28°C
50%
29°C
41%
30°C
50%
31°C or higher
<1%
22°C 50%
24°C 50%
28°C 50%
30°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
$151 Vol.
1%
22°C
$16 Vol.
50%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$6 Vol.
28%
25°C
$0 Vol.
26%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$26 Vol.
50%
29°C
$20 Vol.
41%
30°C
$135 Vol.
50%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions, reinforced by a low-pressure area, are driving cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and moderate southwesterly winds over Metro Manila, which limit radiative cooling and keep overnight minimum temperatures clustered in the mid-20s °C range. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model runs indicate nighttime lows near 24–26 °C for August 30 under overcast skies and high humidity, consistent with the tightly grouped market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. Historical August climatology for the region shows similar monsoon-suppressed diurnal ranges, while any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in steering flow could nudge the recorded minimum toward adjacent bins. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model cycles remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$359End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions, reinforced by a low-pressure area, are driving cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and moderate southwesterly winds over Metro Manila, which limit radiative cooling and keep overnight minimum temperatures clustered in the mid-20s °C range. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model runs indicate nighttime lows near 24–26 °C for August 30 under overcast skies and high humidity, consistent with the tightly grouped market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. Historical August climatology for the region shows similar monsoon-suppressed diurnal ranges, while any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in steering flow could nudge the recorded minimum toward adjacent bins. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model cycles remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$359End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions, reinforced by a low-pressure area, are driving cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and moderate southwesterly winds over Metro Manila, which limit radiative cooling and keep overnight minimum temperatures clustered in the mid-20s °C range. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model runs indicate nighttime lows near 24–26 °C for August 30 under overcast skies and high humidity, consistent with the tightly grouped market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. Historical August climatology for the region shows similar monsoon-suppressed diurnal ranges, while any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in steering flow could nudge the recorded minimum toward adjacent bins. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model cycles remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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