Ongoing southwest monsoon activity over Luzon, including Metro Manila, has sustained widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy rains, and thunderstorms through August 29, suppressing daytime heating and supporting cooler overnight minimums. Official PAGASA guidance lists a 24°C minimum for the period, consistent with regional model consensus under moderate-to-strong southwesterly flow, while historical climatology for late August places typical lows near 25–26°C. Persistent rainfall and high humidity near 95–100% enhance evaporative cooling and limit radiative warming, positioning 23°C as the leading market outcome at 55.5% implied probability ahead of 22°C. Updated model runs and station observations through the evening will determine whether further cooling pushes the recorded low lower before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 29?
21°C or below 12%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$3,702 Vol.
$3,702 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
21°C or below
12%
22°C
36%
23°C
55%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
21°C or below 12%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$3,702 Vol.
$3,702 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
21°C or below
$407 Vol.
12%
22°C
$374 Vol.
36%
23°C
$214 Vol.
55%
24°C
$717 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$614 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$510 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$156 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$117 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$379 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$109 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing southwest monsoon activity over Luzon, including Metro Manila, has sustained widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy rains, and thunderstorms through August 29, suppressing daytime heating and supporting cooler overnight minimums. Official PAGASA guidance lists a 24°C minimum for the period, consistent with regional model consensus under moderate-to-strong southwesterly flow, while historical climatology for late August places typical lows near 25–26°C. Persistent rainfall and high humidity near 95–100% enhance evaporative cooling and limit radiative warming, positioning 23°C as the leading market outcome at 55.5% implied probability ahead of 22°C. Updated model runs and station observations through the evening will determine whether further cooling pushes the recorded low lower before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$3,702End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing southwest monsoon activity over Luzon, including Metro Manila, has sustained widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy rains, and thunderstorms through August 29, suppressing daytime heating and supporting cooler overnight minimums. Official PAGASA guidance lists a 24°C minimum for the period, consistent with regional model consensus under moderate-to-strong southwesterly flow, while historical climatology for late August places typical lows near 25–26°C. Persistent rainfall and high humidity near 95–100% enhance evaporative cooling and limit radiative warming, positioning 23°C as the leading market outcome at 55.5% implied probability ahead of 22°C. Updated model runs and station observations through the evening will determine whether further cooling pushes the recorded low lower before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,702End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing southwest monsoon activity over Luzon, including Metro Manila, has sustained widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy rains, and thunderstorms through August 29, suppressing daytime heating and supporting cooler overnight minimums. Official PAGASA guidance lists a 24°C minimum for the period, consistent with regional model consensus under moderate-to-strong southwesterly flow, while historical climatology for late August places typical lows near 25–26°C. Persistent rainfall and high humidity near 95–100% enhance evaporative cooling and limit radiative warming, positioning 23°C as the leading market outcome at 55.5% implied probability ahead of 22°C. Updated model runs and station observations through the evening will determine whether further cooling pushes the recorded low lower before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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