Persistent southwest monsoon flow, with moderate to strong winds and widespread cloud cover, is suppressing daytime heating across Metro Manila and driving the market-implied probabilities for a maximum temperature of 29–31°C on August 30. PAGASA forecasts a 24–27°C range with 90% rain probability, while international models and recent observations indicate highs near 29–30°C amid frequent thunderstorms and high humidity. These conditions align with historical August patterns during active monsoon periods, where convective activity and reduced solar insolation typically cap peaks below seasonal averages around 31°C. Trader consensus, reflected in the 42% probability for exactly 30°C, incorporates the latest model guidance and ongoing moisture influx ahead of any potential shifts in steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 30?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 30?
30°C 42%
29°C 25%
31°C 20%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
9%
29°C
25%
30°C
42%
31°C
20%
32°C
4%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 42%
29°C 25%
31°C 20%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
24°C or below
$161 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$238 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$113 Vol.
1%
27°C
$182 Vol.
5%
28°C
$788 Vol.
9%
29°C
$2,364 Vol.
25%
30°C
$1,786 Vol.
42%
31°C
$146 Vol.
20%
32°C
$361 Vol.
4%
33°C
$23 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$206 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow, with moderate to strong winds and widespread cloud cover, is suppressing daytime heating across Metro Manila and driving the market-implied probabilities for a maximum temperature of 29–31°C on August 30. PAGASA forecasts a 24–27°C range with 90% rain probability, while international models and recent observations indicate highs near 29–30°C amid frequent thunderstorms and high humidity. These conditions align with historical August patterns during active monsoon periods, where convective activity and reduced solar insolation typically cap peaks below seasonal averages around 31°C. Trader consensus, reflected in the 42% probability for exactly 30°C, incorporates the latest model guidance and ongoing moisture influx ahead of any potential shifts in steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$6,368End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow, with moderate to strong winds and widespread cloud cover, is suppressing daytime heating across Metro Manila and driving the market-implied probabilities for a maximum temperature of 29–31°C on August 30. PAGASA forecasts a 24–27°C range with 90% rain probability, while international models and recent observations indicate highs near 29–30°C amid frequent thunderstorms and high humidity. These conditions align with historical August patterns during active monsoon periods, where convective activity and reduced solar insolation typically cap peaks below seasonal averages around 31°C. Trader consensus, reflected in the 42% probability for exactly 30°C, incorporates the latest model guidance and ongoing moisture influx ahead of any potential shifts in steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,368End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon flow, with moderate to strong winds and widespread cloud cover, is suppressing daytime heating across Metro Manila and driving the market-implied probabilities for a maximum temperature of 29–31°C on August 30. PAGASA forecasts a 24–27°C range with 90% rain probability, while international models and recent observations indicate highs near 29–30°C amid frequent thunderstorms and high humidity. These conditions align with historical August patterns during active monsoon periods, where convective activity and reduced solar insolation typically cap peaks below seasonal averages around 31°C. Trader consensus, reflected in the 42% probability for exactly 30°C, incorporates the latest model guidance and ongoing moisture influx ahead of any potential shifts in steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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