Current National Weather Service forecasts for Austin show sunny conditions and a high near 99°F on August 31 under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, positioning the 98-99°F bin as the market leader at 52.5% implied probability. Persistent subtropical high pressure and dry air support strong daytime heating consistent with late-summer climatology, though August averages near 95°F and recent model runs allow for minor adjustments into the 100-101°F range (38.5%). Low precipitation odds and heat-index values near 104°F reinforce trader consensus around these central outcomes, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Updated model guidance and any last-minute wind shifts remain the key variables before the close of trading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 31?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 31?
98-99°F 53%
100-101°F 38%
92-93°F 8%
94-95°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
8%
94-95°F
8%
96-97°F
8%
98-99°F
53%
100-101°F
38%
102-103°F
7%
104-105°F
5%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 53%
100-101°F 38%
92-93°F 8%
94-95°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
$18 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$18 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
8%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
8%
96-97°F
$24 Vol.
8%
98-99°F
$184 Vol.
53%
100-101°F
$120 Vol.
38%
102-103°F
$24 Vol.
7%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
5%
106-107°F
$18 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$18 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for Austin show sunny conditions and a high near 99°F on August 31 under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, positioning the 98-99°F bin as the market leader at 52.5% implied probability. Persistent subtropical high pressure and dry air support strong daytime heating consistent with late-summer climatology, though August averages near 95°F and recent model runs allow for minor adjustments into the 100-101°F range (38.5%). Low precipitation odds and heat-index values near 104°F reinforce trader consensus around these central outcomes, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Updated model guidance and any last-minute wind shifts remain the key variables before the close of trading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$424End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for Austin show sunny conditions and a high near 99°F on August 31 under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, positioning the 98-99°F bin as the market leader at 52.5% implied probability. Persistent subtropical high pressure and dry air support strong daytime heating consistent with late-summer climatology, though August averages near 95°F and recent model runs allow for minor adjustments into the 100-101°F range (38.5%). Low precipitation odds and heat-index values near 104°F reinforce trader consensus around these central outcomes, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Updated model guidance and any last-minute wind shifts remain the key variables before the close of trading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$424End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service forecasts for Austin show sunny conditions and a high near 99°F on August 31 under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, positioning the 98-99°F bin as the market leader at 52.5% implied probability. Persistent subtropical high pressure and dry air support strong daytime heating consistent with late-summer climatology, though August averages near 95°F and recent model runs allow for minor adjustments into the 100-101°F range (38.5%). Low precipitation odds and heat-index values near 104°F reinforce trader consensus around these central outcomes, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Updated model guidance and any last-minute wind shifts remain the key variables before the close of trading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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