Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and similar models indicate minimum temperatures in Amsterdam on August 31 most likely between 14–16°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds that limit overnight radiative cooling. These conditions stem from an Atlantic low-pressure system maintaining unsettled maritime air across the region, with daytime highs near 19–20°C and dew points supporting only modest drops after sunset. Model spreads create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 14–16°C, as slight variations in precipitation timing or wind direction could shift the overnight low by 1–2°C. Historical August minima average near 12–13°C, but the current pattern favors milder values. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 31?
17°C 49%
15°C 30%
16°C 28%
14°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
4%
12°C
5%
13°C
9%
14°C
27%
15°C
30%
16°C
28%
17°C
49%
18°C
15%
19°C
2%
20°C
4%
21°C or higher
1%
17°C 49%
15°C 30%
16°C 28%
14°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
12°C
$0 Vol.
5%
13°C
$0 Vol.
9%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
15%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and similar models indicate minimum temperatures in Amsterdam on August 31 most likely between 14–16°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds that limit overnight radiative cooling. These conditions stem from an Atlantic low-pressure system maintaining unsettled maritime air across the region, with daytime highs near 19–20°C and dew points supporting only modest drops after sunset. Model spreads create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 14–16°C, as slight variations in precipitation timing or wind direction could shift the overnight low by 1–2°C. Historical August minima average near 12–13°C, but the current pattern favors milder values. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and similar models indicate minimum temperatures in Amsterdam on August 31 most likely between 14–16°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds that limit overnight radiative cooling. These conditions stem from an Atlantic low-pressure system maintaining unsettled maritime air across the region, with daytime highs near 19–20°C and dew points supporting only modest drops after sunset. Model spreads create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 14–16°C, as slight variations in precipitation timing or wind direction could shift the overnight low by 1–2°C. Historical August minima average near 12–13°C, but the current pattern favors milder values. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and similar models indicate minimum temperatures in Amsterdam on August 31 most likely between 14–16°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds that limit overnight radiative cooling. These conditions stem from an Atlantic low-pressure system maintaining unsettled maritime air across the region, with daytime highs near 19–20°C and dew points supporting only modest drops after sunset. Model spreads create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 14–16°C, as slight variations in precipitation timing or wind direction could shift the overnight low by 1–2°C. Historical August minima average near 12–13°C, but the current pattern favors milder values. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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