Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Amsterdam will experience unsettled conditions on August 31 driven by a low-pressure system and southwest flow, bringing widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate winds that limit daytime heating. This setup favors a daily maximum near 19–20°C, below the late-August climatological average of roughly 21–22°C, as persistent moisture and reduced insolation suppress warming. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between these thresholds based on subtle differences in model timing of any breaks in cloud or shower intensity, with resolution hinging on the precise peak recorded at official stations. Updated runs in the next 48 hours will likely tighten consensus around the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 31?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 31?
20°C 44%
19°C 37%
21°C 12%
18°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
10%
19°C
37%
20°C
44%
21°C
12%
22°C
3%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 44%
19°C 37%
21°C 12%
18°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
14°C or below
$15 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$151 Vol.
1%
17°C
$46 Vol.
1%
18°C
$22 Vol.
10%
19°C
$65 Vol.
37%
20°C
$59 Vol.
44%
21°C
$169 Vol.
12%
22°C
$99 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$32 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Amsterdam will experience unsettled conditions on August 31 driven by a low-pressure system and southwest flow, bringing widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate winds that limit daytime heating. This setup favors a daily maximum near 19–20°C, below the late-August climatological average of roughly 21–22°C, as persistent moisture and reduced insolation suppress warming. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between these thresholds based on subtle differences in model timing of any breaks in cloud or shower intensity, with resolution hinging on the precise peak recorded at official stations. Updated runs in the next 48 hours will likely tighten consensus around the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$637End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Amsterdam will experience unsettled conditions on August 31 driven by a low-pressure system and southwest flow, bringing widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate winds that limit daytime heating. This setup favors a daily maximum near 19–20°C, below the late-August climatological average of roughly 21–22°C, as persistent moisture and reduced insolation suppress warming. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between these thresholds based on subtle differences in model timing of any breaks in cloud or shower intensity, with resolution hinging on the precise peak recorded at official stations. Updated runs in the next 48 hours will likely tighten consensus around the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$637End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate Amsterdam will experience unsettled conditions on August 31 driven by a low-pressure system and southwest flow, bringing widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate winds that limit daytime heating. This setup favors a daily maximum near 19–20°C, below the late-August climatological average of roughly 21–22°C, as persistent moisture and reduced insolation suppress warming. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between these thresholds based on subtle differences in model timing of any breaks in cloud or shower intensity, with resolution hinging on the precise peak recorded at official stations. Updated runs in the next 48 hours will likely tighten consensus around the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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