Recent forecast guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models indicates a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on August 30 most likely between 15–18 °C, with trader-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 16–18 °C. Persistent southwesterly flow ahead of an Atlantic low is advecting mild maritime air while widespread cloud cover and showers limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup has kept overnight lows several degrees above the 1991–2020 average of 12.5 °C. Model consensus shows modest spread due to uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation bands, which could either enhance or suppress the minimum depending on clearing windows. Latest model runs through late August 29 continue to support this narrow range, with any late adjustments likely driven by updated boundary-layer moisture profiles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 30?
17°C 28%
16°C 27%
18°C 27%
13°C or below 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
14%
14°C
14%
15°C
10%
16°C
27%
17°C
28%
18°C
27%
19°C
9%
20°C
8%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
17°C 28%
16°C 27%
18°C 27%
13°C or below 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
$10 Vol.
14%
14°C
$20 Vol.
14%
15°C
$0 Vol.
10%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
28%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
9%
20°C
$20 Vol.
8%
21°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models indicates a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on August 30 most likely between 15–18 °C, with trader-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 16–18 °C. Persistent southwesterly flow ahead of an Atlantic low is advecting mild maritime air while widespread cloud cover and showers limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup has kept overnight lows several degrees above the 1991–2020 average of 12.5 °C. Model consensus shows modest spread due to uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation bands, which could either enhance or suppress the minimum depending on clearing windows. Latest model runs through late August 29 continue to support this narrow range, with any late adjustments likely driven by updated boundary-layer moisture profiles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$70End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models indicates a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on August 30 most likely between 15–18 °C, with trader-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 16–18 °C. Persistent southwesterly flow ahead of an Atlantic low is advecting mild maritime air while widespread cloud cover and showers limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup has kept overnight lows several degrees above the 1991–2020 average of 12.5 °C. Model consensus shows modest spread due to uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation bands, which could either enhance or suppress the minimum depending on clearing windows. Latest model runs through late August 29 continue to support this narrow range, with any late adjustments likely driven by updated boundary-layer moisture profiles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$70End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models indicates a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on August 30 most likely between 15–18 °C, with trader-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 16–18 °C. Persistent southwesterly flow ahead of an Atlantic low is advecting mild maritime air while widespread cloud cover and showers limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup has kept overnight lows several degrees above the 1991–2020 average of 12.5 °C. Model consensus shows modest spread due to uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation bands, which could either enhance or suppress the minimum depending on clearing windows. Latest model runs through late August 29 continue to support this narrow range, with any late adjustments likely driven by updated boundary-layer moisture profiles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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