Persistent monsoon moisture and widespread cloud cover with thunderstorms across the Pearl River Delta are capping solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, keeping Shenzhen’s projected maximum on August 31 near 29–31 °C according to the latest model runs. Forecasters from NOAA-linked and regional sources show 50–90 % precipitation probability through Monday, with daytime highs suppressed relative to the 32 °C August climatology. This pattern, following heavy rainfall on 29 August, explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 30 °C and 31 °C while assigning lower odds to 32 °C or higher. Minor model spread in steering flow and timing of any brief clearing leaves room for a one-degree revision before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 31?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 31?
31°C 37%
30°C 28%
32°C 15%
29°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
14%
30°C
28%
31°C
37%
32°C
15%
33°C
8%
34°C or higher
1%
31°C 37%
30°C 28%
32°C 15%
29°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
$192 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$150 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$25 Vol.
7%
29°C
$52 Vol.
14%
30°C
$134 Vol.
28%
31°C
$531 Vol.
37%
32°C
$30 Vol.
15%
33°C
$265 Vol.
8%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent monsoon moisture and widespread cloud cover with thunderstorms across the Pearl River Delta are capping solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, keeping Shenzhen’s projected maximum on August 31 near 29–31 °C according to the latest model runs. Forecasters from NOAA-linked and regional sources show 50–90 % precipitation probability through Monday, with daytime highs suppressed relative to the 32 °C August climatology. This pattern, following heavy rainfall on 29 August, explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 30 °C and 31 °C while assigning lower odds to 32 °C or higher. Minor model spread in steering flow and timing of any brief clearing leaves room for a one-degree revision before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,519End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent monsoon moisture and widespread cloud cover with thunderstorms across the Pearl River Delta are capping solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, keeping Shenzhen’s projected maximum on August 31 near 29–31 °C according to the latest model runs. Forecasters from NOAA-linked and regional sources show 50–90 % precipitation probability through Monday, with daytime highs suppressed relative to the 32 °C August climatology. This pattern, following heavy rainfall on 29 August, explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 30 °C and 31 °C while assigning lower odds to 32 °C or higher. Minor model spread in steering flow and timing of any brief clearing leaves room for a one-degree revision before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,519End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent monsoon moisture and widespread cloud cover with thunderstorms across the Pearl River Delta are capping solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, keeping Shenzhen’s projected maximum on August 31 near 29–31 °C according to the latest model runs. Forecasters from NOAA-linked and regional sources show 50–90 % precipitation probability through Monday, with daytime highs suppressed relative to the 32 °C August climatology. This pattern, following heavy rainfall on 29 August, explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 30 °C and 31 °C while assigning lower odds to 32 °C or higher. Minor model spread in steering flow and timing of any brief clearing leaves room for a one-degree revision before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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