**Recent forecast consensus from meteorological models points to widespread cloud cover and thunderstorms suppressing peak heating in Shenzhen on August 30, positioning 29–31°C as the most probable range and driving the market-implied odds of 40.5% for 30°C.** Persistent humidity near 80–90% combined with easterly flow and expected rainfall totals of several millimeters will limit insolation, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 32°C. Recent observations from August 29 showed afternoon readings reaching 32–33°C before convective activity developed, providing a baseline that traders appear to have adjusted downward for the next day’s wetter regime. Model runs show limited spread, with most guidance converging on a high near 29–30°C, though any delay in storm initiation could allow brief spikes toward 31°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 30?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 30?
30°C 39%
31°C 26%
29°C 23%
32°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
23%
30°C
39%
31°C
26%
32°C
8%
33°C
4%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 39%
31°C 26%
29°C 23%
32°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
25°C or below
$450 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$868 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$321 Vol.
2%
28°C
$376 Vol.
5%
29°C
$572 Vol.
23%
30°C
$1,675 Vol.
39%
31°C
$396 Vol.
26%
32°C
$1,372 Vol.
8%
33°C
$683 Vol.
4%
34°C
$731 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$581 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast consensus from meteorological models points to widespread cloud cover and thunderstorms suppressing peak heating in Shenzhen on August 30, positioning 29–31°C as the most probable range and driving the market-implied odds of 40.5% for 30°C.** Persistent humidity near 80–90% combined with easterly flow and expected rainfall totals of several millimeters will limit insolation, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 32°C. Recent observations from August 29 showed afternoon readings reaching 32–33°C before convective activity developed, providing a baseline that traders appear to have adjusted downward for the next day’s wetter regime. Model runs show limited spread, with most guidance converging on a high near 29–30°C, though any delay in storm initiation could allow brief spikes toward 31°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$8,025End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast consensus from meteorological models points to widespread cloud cover and thunderstorms suppressing peak heating in Shenzhen on August 30, positioning 29–31°C as the most probable range and driving the market-implied odds of 40.5% for 30°C.** Persistent humidity near 80–90% combined with easterly flow and expected rainfall totals of several millimeters will limit insolation, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 32°C. Recent observations from August 29 showed afternoon readings reaching 32–33°C before convective activity developed, providing a baseline that traders appear to have adjusted downward for the next day’s wetter regime. Model runs show limited spread, with most guidance converging on a high near 29–30°C, though any delay in storm initiation could allow brief spikes toward 31°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,025End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecast consensus from meteorological models points to widespread cloud cover and thunderstorms suppressing peak heating in Shenzhen on August 30, positioning 29–31°C as the most probable range and driving the market-implied odds of 40.5% for 30°C.** Persistent humidity near 80–90% combined with easterly flow and expected rainfall totals of several millimeters will limit insolation, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 32°C. Recent observations from August 29 showed afternoon readings reaching 32–33°C before convective activity developed, providing a baseline that traders appear to have adjusted downward for the next day’s wetter regime. Model runs show limited spread, with most guidance converging on a high near 29–30°C, though any delay in storm initiation could allow brief spikes toward 31°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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