**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover/rainfall are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila.** Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate frequent showers and thunderstorms through August 31, with strong southwesterly winds promoting mixing and high humidity that limits surface warming. This setup typically suppresses maximum temperatures to the 29–32°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market probabilities (31°C at 30.5%, 30°C at 27%, 32°C at 21%). Historical August baselines near 31°C provide context, but the current enhanced monsoon—fueled by distant low-pressure systems—introduces downward pressure on peaks compared to drier periods. Updated model runs and any shifts in convective timing over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could differentiate outcomes near resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 31?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 31?
31°C 28%
30°C 24%
32°C 21%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
13%
30°C
24%
31°C
28%
32°C
21%
33°C
11%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 28%
30°C 24%
32°C 21%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
25°C or below
$117 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$14 Vol.
1%
27°C
$6 Vol.
1%
28°C
$13 Vol.
3%
29°C
$8 Vol.
13%
30°C
$7 Vol.
24%
31°C
$15 Vol.
28%
32°C
$344 Vol.
21%
33°C
$27 Vol.
11%
34°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$111 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover/rainfall are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila.** Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate frequent showers and thunderstorms through August 31, with strong southwesterly winds promoting mixing and high humidity that limits surface warming. This setup typically suppresses maximum temperatures to the 29–32°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market probabilities (31°C at 30.5%, 30°C at 27%, 32°C at 21%). Historical August baselines near 31°C provide context, but the current enhanced monsoon—fueled by distant low-pressure systems—introduces downward pressure on peaks compared to drier periods. Updated model runs and any shifts in convective timing over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could differentiate outcomes near resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$662End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover/rainfall are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila.** Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate frequent showers and thunderstorms through August 31, with strong southwesterly winds promoting mixing and high humidity that limits surface warming. This setup typically suppresses maximum temperatures to the 29–32°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market probabilities (31°C at 30.5%, 30°C at 27%, 32°C at 21%). Historical August baselines near 31°C provide context, but the current enhanced monsoon—fueled by distant low-pressure systems—introduces downward pressure on peaks compared to drier periods. Updated model runs and any shifts in convective timing over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could differentiate outcomes near resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$662End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover/rainfall are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila.** Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate frequent showers and thunderstorms through August 31, with strong southwesterly winds promoting mixing and high humidity that limits surface warming. This setup typically suppresses maximum temperatures to the 29–32°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market probabilities (31°C at 30.5%, 30°C at 27%, 32°C at 21%). Historical August baselines near 31°C provide context, but the current enhanced monsoon—fueled by distant low-pressure systems—introduces downward pressure on peaks compared to drier periods. Updated model runs and any shifts in convective timing over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could differentiate outcomes near resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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