Latest forecast consensus from GFS and other models points to an afternoon high of 20–21 °C in Amsterdam on August 30 under persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southwest flow, placing 21 °C at the center of trader positioning. These conditions reflect a typical late-August Atlantic regime that limits diurnal warming, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 21.1 °C for the date. Recent model runs show little variability in peak temperature, with cloud thickness and wind speeds suppressing any brief warming that could push readings to 22 °C or above. Traders therefore assign the bulk of probability to the narrow 21–22 °C band while discounting higher or lower outcomes that would require rapid changes in steering pattern or insolation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 30?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 30?
21°C 52%
22°C 39%
20°C 9%
23°C 3%
NEW
$13,328 Vol.
NEW
$13,328 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
9%
21°C
52%
22°C
39%
23°C
3%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 52%
22°C 39%
20°C 9%
23°C 3%
NEW
$13,328 Vol.
NEW
$13,328 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
16°C or below
$838 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$119 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$352 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$727 Vol.
1%
20°C
$2,746 Vol.
9%
21°C
$3,424 Vol.
52%
22°C
$2,948 Vol.
39%
23°C
$1,455 Vol.
3%
24°C
$207 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$396 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast consensus from GFS and other models points to an afternoon high of 20–21 °C in Amsterdam on August 30 under persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southwest flow, placing 21 °C at the center of trader positioning. These conditions reflect a typical late-August Atlantic regime that limits diurnal warming, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 21.1 °C for the date. Recent model runs show little variability in peak temperature, with cloud thickness and wind speeds suppressing any brief warming that could push readings to 22 °C or above. Traders therefore assign the bulk of probability to the narrow 21–22 °C band while discounting higher or lower outcomes that would require rapid changes in steering pattern or insolation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$13,328End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast consensus from GFS and other models points to an afternoon high of 20–21 °C in Amsterdam on August 30 under persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southwest flow, placing 21 °C at the center of trader positioning. These conditions reflect a typical late-August Atlantic regime that limits diurnal warming, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 21.1 °C for the date. Recent model runs show little variability in peak temperature, with cloud thickness and wind speeds suppressing any brief warming that could push readings to 22 °C or above. Traders therefore assign the bulk of probability to the narrow 21–22 °C band while discounting higher or lower outcomes that would require rapid changes in steering pattern or insolation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,328End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast consensus from GFS and other models points to an afternoon high of 20–21 °C in Amsterdam on August 30 under persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southwest flow, placing 21 °C at the center of trader positioning. These conditions reflect a typical late-August Atlantic regime that limits diurnal warming, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 21.1 °C for the date. Recent model runs show little variability in peak temperature, with cloud thickness and wind speeds suppressing any brief warming that could push readings to 22 °C or above. Traders therefore assign the bulk of probability to the narrow 21–22 °C band while discounting higher or lower outcomes that would require rapid changes in steering pattern or insolation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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