Wellington's overnight low on August 31 is expected to hinge on a shift to strong northwesterly winds and variable cloud cover, which models indicate will limit radiative cooling compared to calmer conditions. Current forecasts from MetService and international agencies point to a minimum near 5–8°C, with partly cloudy skies and possible showers reducing the chance of deeper drops below typical late-winter baselines around 9°C. Trader sentiment clusters around 9–11°C because small changes in wind timing or cloud persistence—common in Wellington's exposed coastal setting—can shift the exact hourly minimum by 2–3°C, while the modest probability on extremes reflects limited historical precedent for outliers this late in August. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 31?
15°C or higher 60%
8°C 48%
12°C 47%
13°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
4%
6°C
17%
7°C
10%
8°C
48%
9°C
27%
10°C
32%
11°C
26%
12°C
47%
13°C
43%
14°C
2%
15°C or higher
60%
15°C or higher 60%
8°C 48%
12°C 47%
13°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
6°C
$284 Vol.
17%
7°C
$30 Vol.
10%
8°C
$0 Vol.
48%
9°C
$0 Vol.
27%
10°C
$0 Vol.
32%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
47%
13°C
$0 Vol.
43%
14°C
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's overnight low on August 31 is expected to hinge on a shift to strong northwesterly winds and variable cloud cover, which models indicate will limit radiative cooling compared to calmer conditions. Current forecasts from MetService and international agencies point to a minimum near 5–8°C, with partly cloudy skies and possible showers reducing the chance of deeper drops below typical late-winter baselines around 9°C. Trader sentiment clusters around 9–11°C because small changes in wind timing or cloud persistence—common in Wellington's exposed coastal setting—can shift the exact hourly minimum by 2–3°C, while the modest probability on extremes reflects limited historical precedent for outliers this late in August. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$314End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's overnight low on August 31 is expected to hinge on a shift to strong northwesterly winds and variable cloud cover, which models indicate will limit radiative cooling compared to calmer conditions. Current forecasts from MetService and international agencies point to a minimum near 5–8°C, with partly cloudy skies and possible showers reducing the chance of deeper drops below typical late-winter baselines around 9°C. Trader sentiment clusters around 9–11°C because small changes in wind timing or cloud persistence—common in Wellington's exposed coastal setting—can shift the exact hourly minimum by 2–3°C, while the modest probability on extremes reflects limited historical precedent for outliers this late in August. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$314End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington's overnight low on August 31 is expected to hinge on a shift to strong northwesterly winds and variable cloud cover, which models indicate will limit radiative cooling compared to calmer conditions. Current forecasts from MetService and international agencies point to a minimum near 5–8°C, with partly cloudy skies and possible showers reducing the chance of deeper drops below typical late-winter baselines around 9°C. Trader sentiment clusters around 9–11°C because small changes in wind timing or cloud persistence—common in Wellington's exposed coastal setting—can shift the exact hourly minimum by 2–3°C, while the modest probability on extremes reflects limited historical precedent for outliers this late in August. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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