**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 30 minimum temperature reflects model consensus around a mild overnight low near 10–11 °C amid clear skies and strong northwest flow, with the tight spread across 7–12 °C outcomes driven by uncertainty in radiative cooling rates and local wind effects.** Northwesterly winds of 20–35 km/h, associated with a high-pressure ridge, limit nocturnal cooling while advecting milder maritime air; clear conditions favor stronger surface heat loss, but gusty flow and Wellington’s topography can mix warmer air downward or create localized sheltered pockets several degrees cooler. Recent late-winter observations show above-average temperatures overall, yet ensembles indicate the night of the 29th–30th will see the calendar-day minimum fall in the single digits to low teens Celsius depending on exact wind deceleration and any thin high cloud. Upcoming MetService and international model runs, plus real-time station data from Wellington International Airport, will refine the final reading and explain why adjacent one-degree bins each hold substantial implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
7°C 50%
8°C 50%
12°C 50%
11°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
6°C or below
5%
7°C
50%
8°C
50%
9°C
23%
10°C
27%
11°C
30%
12°C
50%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
7°C 50%
8°C 50%
12°C 50%
11°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
6°C or below
$5 Vol.
5%
7°C
$0 Vol.
50%
8°C
$10 Vol.
50%
9°C
$61 Vol.
23%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
30%
12°C
$0 Vol.
50%
13°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$351 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 30 minimum temperature reflects model consensus around a mild overnight low near 10–11 °C amid clear skies and strong northwest flow, with the tight spread across 7–12 °C outcomes driven by uncertainty in radiative cooling rates and local wind effects.**
Northwesterly winds of 20–35 km/h, associated with a high-pressure ridge, limit nocturnal cooling while advecting milder maritime air; clear conditions favor stronger surface heat loss, but gusty flow and Wellington’s topography can mix warmer air downward or create localized sheltered pockets several degrees cooler. Recent late-winter observations show above-average temperatures overall, yet ensembles indicate the night of the 29th–30th will see the calendar-day minimum fall in the single digits to low teens Celsius depending on exact wind deceleration and any thin high cloud. Upcoming MetService and international model runs, plus real-time station data from Wellington International Airport, will refine the final reading and explain why adjacent one-degree bins each hold substantial implied probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$627End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 30 minimum temperature reflects model consensus around a mild overnight low near 10–11 °C amid clear skies and strong northwest flow, with the tight spread across 7–12 °C outcomes driven by uncertainty in radiative cooling rates and local wind effects.**
Northwesterly winds of 20–35 km/h, associated with a high-pressure ridge, limit nocturnal cooling while advecting milder maritime air; clear conditions favor stronger surface heat loss, but gusty flow and Wellington’s topography can mix warmer air downward or create localized sheltered pockets several degrees cooler. Recent late-winter observations show above-average temperatures overall, yet ensembles indicate the night of the 29th–30th will see the calendar-day minimum fall in the single digits to low teens Celsius depending on exact wind deceleration and any thin high cloud. Upcoming MetService and international model runs, plus real-time station data from Wellington International Airport, will refine the final reading and explain why adjacent one-degree bins each hold substantial implied probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$627End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 30 minimum temperature reflects model consensus around a mild overnight low near 10–11 °C amid clear skies and strong northwest flow, with the tight spread across 7–12 °C outcomes driven by uncertainty in radiative cooling rates and local wind effects.** Northwesterly winds of 20–35 km/h, associated with a high-pressure ridge, limit nocturnal cooling while advecting milder maritime air; clear conditions favor stronger surface heat loss, but gusty flow and Wellington’s topography can mix warmer air downward or create localized sheltered pockets several degrees cooler. Recent late-winter observations show above-average temperatures overall, yet ensembles indicate the night of the 29th–30th will see the calendar-day minimum fall in the single digits to low teens Celsius depending on exact wind deceleration and any thin high cloud. Upcoming MetService and international model runs, plus real-time station data from Wellington International Airport, will refine the final reading and explain why adjacent one-degree bins each hold substantial implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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