Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model consensus point to an overnight low of 64–66°F for New York City on August 29, 2026, under clear skies, light variable winds, and high pressure favoring efficient radiative cooling after a daytime high near 81°F. This aligns with climatological norms (average low 66.4°F) and recent Central Park observations showing minimums of 63–68°F. Trader consensus at 97.5% for the 64–65°F bin reflects the narrow uncertainty range in current guidance. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, increased low-level moisture, or stronger winds that limit cooling, potentially lifting the minimum into the upper 60s; revised model runs or station-specific readings could still shift the exact bin within the mid-60s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 29?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 29?
64-65°F 99%
62-63°F 1.1%
60-61°F <1%
55°F or below <1%
$6,718 Vol.
$6,718 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
99%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74°F or higher
<1%
64-65°F 99%
62-63°F 1.1%
60-61°F <1%
55°F or below <1%
$6,718 Vol.
$6,718 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
55°F or below
$40 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$30 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$30 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$333 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$299 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$992 Vol.
99%
66-67°F
$1,966 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,433 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$909 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$504 Vol.
<1%
74°F or higher
$183 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model consensus point to an overnight low of 64–66°F for New York City on August 29, 2026, under clear skies, light variable winds, and high pressure favoring efficient radiative cooling after a daytime high near 81°F. This aligns with climatological norms (average low 66.4°F) and recent Central Park observations showing minimums of 63–68°F. Trader consensus at 97.5% for the 64–65°F bin reflects the narrow uncertainty range in current guidance. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, increased low-level moisture, or stronger winds that limit cooling, potentially lifting the minimum into the upper 60s; revised model runs or station-specific readings could still shift the exact bin within the mid-60s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$6,718End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model consensus point to an overnight low of 64–66°F for New York City on August 29, 2026, under clear skies, light variable winds, and high pressure favoring efficient radiative cooling after a daytime high near 81°F. This aligns with climatological norms (average low 66.4°F) and recent Central Park observations showing minimums of 63–68°F. Trader consensus at 97.5% for the 64–65°F bin reflects the narrow uncertainty range in current guidance. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, increased low-level moisture, or stronger winds that limit cooling, potentially lifting the minimum into the upper 60s; revised model runs or station-specific readings could still shift the exact bin within the mid-60s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,718End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model consensus point to an overnight low of 64–66°F for New York City on August 29, 2026, under clear skies, light variable winds, and high pressure favoring efficient radiative cooling after a daytime high near 81°F. This aligns with climatological norms (average low 66.4°F) and recent Central Park observations showing minimums of 63–68°F. Trader consensus at 97.5% for the 64–65°F bin reflects the narrow uncertainty range in current guidance. A realistic challenge would require sustained cloud cover, increased low-level moisture, or stronger winds that limit cooling, potentially lifting the minimum into the upper 60s; revised model runs or station-specific readings could still shift the exact bin within the mid-60s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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