**Recent official forecasts from the National Weather Service and major providers indicate overnight lows in Miami on August 31 will most likely settle in the upper 70s to low 80s, aligning with the market's leading 80-81°F bin at 40% implied probability.** Persistent easterly flow, elevated precipitable water values near 2 inches, and widespread afternoon/evening thunderstorms are maintaining high humidity and cloud cover that limit radiative cooling overnight. This typical late-summer South Florida pattern—driven by sea-breeze convergence and weak upper-level support—keeps minimum temperatures well above the long-term average low of ~77.5°F for the date. Model consensus shows little day-to-day variability through the period, with no approaching fronts or drier air masses to produce sharper drops. The 78-79°F and 82-83°F outcomes (25% and 22.5%) remain plausible depending on exact storm timing and cloud persistence, while probabilities drop sharply below 76°F or above 84°F given the stable thermodynamic environment. Updated National Weather Service guidance through the weekend has reinforced this warm, moist regime without significant revisions, supporting the current trader consensus around the narrow 78-83°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 31?
82-83°F 45%
80-81°F 40%
78-79°F 25%
76-77°F 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
73°F or below
11%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
45%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
17%
92°F or higher
2%
82-83°F 45%
80-81°F 40%
78-79°F 25%
76-77°F 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
11%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
18%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
22%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
25%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
40%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
45%
84-85°F
$33 Vol.
18%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
16%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
17%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
17%
92°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from the National Weather Service and major providers indicate overnight lows in Miami on August 31 will most likely settle in the upper 70s to low 80s, aligning with the market's leading 80-81°F bin at 40% implied probability.**
Persistent easterly flow, elevated precipitable water values near 2 inches, and widespread afternoon/evening thunderstorms are maintaining high humidity and cloud cover that limit radiative cooling overnight. This typical late-summer South Florida pattern—driven by sea-breeze convergence and weak upper-level support—keeps minimum temperatures well above the long-term average low of ~77.5°F for the date. Model consensus shows little day-to-day variability through the period, with no approaching fronts or drier air masses to produce sharper drops.
The 78-79°F and 82-83°F outcomes (25% and 22.5%) remain plausible depending on exact storm timing and cloud persistence, while probabilities drop sharply below 76°F or above 84°F given the stable thermodynamic environment. Updated National Weather Service guidance through the weekend has reinforced this warm, moist regime without significant revisions, supporting the current trader consensus around the narrow 78-83°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$33End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from the National Weather Service and major providers indicate overnight lows in Miami on August 31 will most likely settle in the upper 70s to low 80s, aligning with the market's leading 80-81°F bin at 40% implied probability.**
Persistent easterly flow, elevated precipitable water values near 2 inches, and widespread afternoon/evening thunderstorms are maintaining high humidity and cloud cover that limit radiative cooling overnight. This typical late-summer South Florida pattern—driven by sea-breeze convergence and weak upper-level support—keeps minimum temperatures well above the long-term average low of ~77.5°F for the date. Model consensus shows little day-to-day variability through the period, with no approaching fronts or drier air masses to produce sharper drops.
The 78-79°F and 82-83°F outcomes (25% and 22.5%) remain plausible depending on exact storm timing and cloud persistence, while probabilities drop sharply below 76°F or above 84°F given the stable thermodynamic environment. Updated National Weather Service guidance through the weekend has reinforced this warm, moist regime without significant revisions, supporting the current trader consensus around the narrow 78-83°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official forecasts from the National Weather Service and major providers indicate overnight lows in Miami on August 31 will most likely settle in the upper 70s to low 80s, aligning with the market's leading 80-81°F bin at 40% implied probability.** Persistent easterly flow, elevated precipitable water values near 2 inches, and widespread afternoon/evening thunderstorms are maintaining high humidity and cloud cover that limit radiative cooling overnight. This typical late-summer South Florida pattern—driven by sea-breeze convergence and weak upper-level support—keeps minimum temperatures well above the long-term average low of ~77.5°F for the date. Model consensus shows little day-to-day variability through the period, with no approaching fronts or drier air masses to produce sharper drops. The 78-79°F and 82-83°F outcomes (25% and 22.5%) remain plausible depending on exact storm timing and cloud persistence, while probabilities drop sharply below 76°F or above 84°F given the stable thermodynamic environment. Updated National Weather Service guidance through the weekend has reinforced this warm, moist regime without significant revisions, supporting the current trader consensus around the narrow 78-83°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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