Recent model consensus points to a daytime high near 26°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary and increasing cloud cover with showers developing after midday. This timing of precipitation and reduced insolation creates meaningful uncertainty between the 25–27°C thresholds that currently dominate market-implied odds. Forecasters note modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact rain onset, while climatological late-August maxima average near 22–24°C. Fresh runs from global and regional models expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine peak temperature and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
27°C or higher 36%
26°C 34%
25°C 22%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
8%
25°C
22%
26°C
34%
27°C or higher
36%
27°C or higher 36%
26°C 34%
25°C 22%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
$196 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$196 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$296 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$296 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$135 Vol.
2%
23°C
$158 Vol.
4%
24°C
$7 Vol.
8%
25°C
$187 Vol.
22%
26°C
$148 Vol.
34%
27°C or higher
$1,078 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to a daytime high near 26°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary and increasing cloud cover with showers developing after midday. This timing of precipitation and reduced insolation creates meaningful uncertainty between the 25–27°C thresholds that currently dominate market-implied odds. Forecasters note modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact rain onset, while climatological late-August maxima average near 22–24°C. Fresh runs from global and regional models expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine peak temperature and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,777End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to a daytime high near 26°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary and increasing cloud cover with showers developing after midday. This timing of precipitation and reduced insolation creates meaningful uncertainty between the 25–27°C thresholds that currently dominate market-implied odds. Forecasters note modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact rain onset, while climatological late-August maxima average near 22–24°C. Fresh runs from global and regional models expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine peak temperature and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,777End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus points to a daytime high near 26°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary and increasing cloud cover with showers developing after midday. This timing of precipitation and reduced insolation creates meaningful uncertainty between the 25–27°C thresholds that currently dominate market-implied odds. Forecasters note modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact rain onset, while climatological late-August maxima average near 22–24°C. Fresh runs from global and regional models expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine peak temperature and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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