Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting models indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum near 30–30.7 °C on 29 August under clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and negligible precipitation. This aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 30.5 °C for the date and follows a cooler 28 August that kept readings 8–10 °C below normal. Market-implied odds above 99 % for exactly 30 °C reflect trader consensus on the most probable official station reading given current model agreement and the narrow historical range around the mean. Only a sharp, unexpected late-day surge or localized measurement variance at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome to 31 °C or below 30 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
30°C 98.6%
31°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
$38,279 Vol.
$38,279 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
99%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 98.6%
31°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
$38,279 Vol.
$38,279 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
25°C or below
$638 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$321 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$727 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,473 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,803 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$10,114 Vol.
99%
31°C
$10,624 Vol.
1%
32°C
$4,683 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$2,923 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$937 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$1,036 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting models indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum near 30–30.7 °C on 29 August under clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and negligible precipitation. This aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 30.5 °C for the date and follows a cooler 28 August that kept readings 8–10 °C below normal. Market-implied odds above 99 % for exactly 30 °C reflect trader consensus on the most probable official station reading given current model agreement and the narrow historical range around the mean. Only a sharp, unexpected late-day surge or localized measurement variance at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome to 31 °C or below 30 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$38,279End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting models indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum near 30–30.7 °C on 29 August under clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and negligible precipitation. This aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 30.5 °C for the date and follows a cooler 28 August that kept readings 8–10 °C below normal. Market-implied odds above 99 % for exactly 30 °C reflect trader consensus on the most probable official station reading given current model agreement and the narrow historical range around the mean. Only a sharp, unexpected late-day surge or localized measurement variance at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome to 31 °C or below 30 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,279End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting models indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum near 30–30.7 °C on 29 August under clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and negligible precipitation. This aligns with the long-term climatological average high of 30.5 °C for the date and follows a cooler 28 August that kept readings 8–10 °C below normal. Market-implied odds above 99 % for exactly 30 °C reflect trader consensus on the most probable official station reading given current model agreement and the narrow historical range around the mean. Only a sharp, unexpected late-day surge or localized measurement variance at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome to 31 °C or below 30 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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