Recent weather model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 31 will likely fall in the 15–17°C range, driven by increasing cloud cover, moderate southwesterly winds around 10–15 km/h, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This positions 15°C and 16°C as market leaders at 28% and 26.5% implied probability, while the tight clustering across 12–17°C outcomes reflects ensemble spread in forecast timing and precipitation intensity. Historical late-August minima near 15°C provide baseline context, but shifting frontal patterns introduce enough variability that traders assign meaningful weight to both cooler and milder scenarios pending final model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
14°C 49%
13°C 47%
18°C 47%
12°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
10°C or below
45%
11°C
20%
12°C
46%
13°C
47%
14°C
49%
15°C
29%
16°C
27%
17°C
23%
18°C
47%
19°C
34%
20°C or higher
2%
14°C 49%
13°C 47%
18°C 47%
12°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
45%
11°C
$130 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
46%
13°C
$0 Vol.
47%
14°C
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
29%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
23%
18°C
$0 Vol.
47%
19°C
$0 Vol.
34%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 31 will likely fall in the 15–17°C range, driven by increasing cloud cover, moderate southwesterly winds around 10–15 km/h, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This positions 15°C and 16°C as market leaders at 28% and 26.5% implied probability, while the tight clustering across 12–17°C outcomes reflects ensemble spread in forecast timing and precipitation intensity. Historical late-August minima near 15°C provide baseline context, but shifting frontal patterns introduce enough variability that traders assign meaningful weight to both cooler and milder scenarios pending final model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 31 will likely fall in the 15–17°C range, driven by increasing cloud cover, moderate southwesterly winds around 10–15 km/h, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This positions 15°C and 16°C as market leaders at 28% and 26.5% implied probability, while the tight clustering across 12–17°C outcomes reflects ensemble spread in forecast timing and precipitation intensity. Historical late-August minima near 15°C provide baseline context, but shifting frontal patterns introduce enough variability that traders assign meaningful weight to both cooler and milder scenarios pending final model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 31 will likely fall in the 15–17°C range, driven by increasing cloud cover, moderate southwesterly winds around 10–15 km/h, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This positions 15°C and 16°C as market leaders at 28% and 26.5% implied probability, while the tight clustering across 12–17°C outcomes reflects ensemble spread in forecast timing and precipitation intensity. Historical late-August minima near 15°C provide baseline context, but shifting frontal patterns introduce enough variability that traders assign meaningful weight to both cooler and milder scenarios pending final model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions