Mexico City's high-elevation setting around 2,240 meters and late-August position in the rainy season create tight clustering of trader probabilities around 22–23°C as the daily maximum. Afternoon convective clouds and showers, driven by monsoon moisture and orographic lift from surrounding mountains, frequently cap peak temperatures by limiting solar insolation, while urban heat-island effects from the metropolitan area can add 1–2°C locally depending on wind patterns. Official measurements from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional stations incorporate these variables, with model runs from regional forecasts showing modest spread due to variable timing of cloud development. Historical climatology places late-August maxima near 22–24°C, but intraday variability from humidity and precipitation timing keeps the 22°C and 23°C outcomes nearly even at market-implied odds of 34.5% and 39.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 29?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 29?
23°C 42%
22°C 35%
24°C 16%
21°C 8%
$7,161 Vol.
$7,161 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
5%
21°C
8%
22°C
35%
23°C
42%
24°C
16%
25°C
4%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
23°C 42%
22°C 35%
24°C 16%
21°C 8%
$7,161 Vol.
$7,161 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
17°C or below
$253 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$413 Vol.
5%
21°C
$789 Vol.
8%
22°C
$795 Vol.
35%
23°C
$1,506 Vol.
42%
24°C
$1,226 Vol.
16%
25°C
$1,210 Vol.
4%
26°C
$318 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$421 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mexico City's high-elevation setting around 2,240 meters and late-August position in the rainy season create tight clustering of trader probabilities around 22–23°C as the daily maximum. Afternoon convective clouds and showers, driven by monsoon moisture and orographic lift from surrounding mountains, frequently cap peak temperatures by limiting solar insolation, while urban heat-island effects from the metropolitan area can add 1–2°C locally depending on wind patterns. Official measurements from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional stations incorporate these variables, with model runs from regional forecasts showing modest spread due to variable timing of cloud development. Historical climatology places late-August maxima near 22–24°C, but intraday variability from humidity and precipitation timing keeps the 22°C and 23°C outcomes nearly even at market-implied odds of 34.5% and 39.5%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$7,161End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mexico City's high-elevation setting around 2,240 meters and late-August position in the rainy season create tight clustering of trader probabilities around 22–23°C as the daily maximum. Afternoon convective clouds and showers, driven by monsoon moisture and orographic lift from surrounding mountains, frequently cap peak temperatures by limiting solar insolation, while urban heat-island effects from the metropolitan area can add 1–2°C locally depending on wind patterns. Official measurements from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional stations incorporate these variables, with model runs from regional forecasts showing modest spread due to variable timing of cloud development. Historical climatology places late-August maxima near 22–24°C, but intraday variability from humidity and precipitation timing keeps the 22°C and 23°C outcomes nearly even at market-implied odds of 34.5% and 39.5%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,161End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico City's high-elevation setting around 2,240 meters and late-August position in the rainy season create tight clustering of trader probabilities around 22–23°C as the daily maximum. Afternoon convective clouds and showers, driven by monsoon moisture and orographic lift from surrounding mountains, frequently cap peak temperatures by limiting solar insolation, while urban heat-island effects from the metropolitan area can add 1–2°C locally depending on wind patterns. Official measurements from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional stations incorporate these variables, with model runs from regional forecasts showing modest spread due to variable timing of cloud development. Historical climatology places late-August maxima near 22–24°C, but intraday variability from humidity and precipitation timing keeps the 22°C and 23°C outcomes nearly even at market-implied odds of 34.5% and 39.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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