Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial race, backed by consistent polling advantages of roughly 55-60% against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 27-28% and minimal support for the remaining candidates. His position stems from strong name recognition as the former Boa Vista mayor, a decisive first-place finish in the June 2026 supplementary election despite its unresolved judicial status over desincompatibilização timing, and a fragmented field that includes Soldado Sampaio as interim governor. Recent surveys from Quaest and Census confirm this margin with limited movement in the final weeks before the first-round vote. A definitive court ruling disqualifying Henrique, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages that have sustained trader consensus around his outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArthur Henrique 93%
Soldado Sampaio 2.4%
Farah Mesquita 1.9%
Clébio Genuíno 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Henrique
93%
Soldado Sampaio
2%
Farah Mesquita
2%
Clébio Genuíno
1%
Rosi Aires
1%
Arthur Henrique 93%
Soldado Sampaio 2.4%
Farah Mesquita 1.9%
Clébio Genuíno 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Henrique
$4,749 Vol.
93%
Soldado Sampaio
$183 Vol.
2%
Farah Mesquita
$153 Vol.
2%
Clébio Genuíno
$281 Vol.
1%
Rosi Aires
$222 Vol.
1%
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial race, backed by consistent polling advantages of roughly 55-60% against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 27-28% and minimal support for the remaining candidates. His position stems from strong name recognition as the former Boa Vista mayor, a decisive first-place finish in the June 2026 supplementary election despite its unresolved judicial status over desincompatibilização timing, and a fragmented field that includes Soldado Sampaio as interim governor. Recent surveys from Quaest and Census confirm this margin with limited movement in the final weeks before the first-round vote. A definitive court ruling disqualifying Henrique, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages that have sustained trader consensus around his outcome.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$5,589End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial race, backed by consistent polling advantages of roughly 55-60% against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 27-28% and minimal support for the remaining candidates. His position stems from strong name recognition as the former Boa Vista mayor, a decisive first-place finish in the June 2026 supplementary election despite its unresolved judicial status over desincompatibilização timing, and a fragmented field that includes Soldado Sampaio as interim governor. Recent surveys from Quaest and Census confirm this margin with limited movement in the final weeks before the first-round vote. A definitive court ruling disqualifying Henrique, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages that have sustained trader consensus around his outcome.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,589End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial race, backed by consistent polling advantages of roughly 55-60% against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 27-28% and minimal support for the remaining candidates. His position stems from strong name recognition as the former Boa Vista mayor, a decisive first-place finish in the June 2026 supplementary election despite its unresolved judicial status over desincompatibilização timing, and a fragmented field that includes Soldado Sampaio as interim governor. Recent surveys from Quaest and Census confirm this margin with limited movement in the final weeks before the first-round vote. A definitive court ruling disqualifying Henrique, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages that have sustained trader consensus around his outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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