Recent polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data, conducted in late August 2026, show a technical tie among five leading candidates—Manuela d’Ávila (PSOL), Marcel van Hattem (Novo), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Germano Rigotto (MDB), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL)—for the two Senate seats in Rio Grande do Sul, with results falling within margins of error and high undecided or blank responses exceeding 40 percent. This fragmentation sustains the tight market pricing, as voters select two names and no single contender has consolidated a clear lead. A multi-candidate debate in mid-August highlighted policy contrasts on issues like gender-based violence and institutional oversight without shifting the balance. Further separation could emerge from targeted campaigning in the final weeks, shifts in undecided voter preferences, or endorsements that consolidate support blocs ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place
Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place
Manuela D'Ávila 46%
Marcel Van Hattem 33%
Regis Ethur 8.8%
Rigotto 6.5%
$17,701 Vol.
$17,701 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Manuela D'Ávila
46%
Marcel Van Hattem
33%
Regis Ethur
9%
Rigotto
7%
Milton Cardoso
6%
Tania Peres
2%
Sanderson
1%
Pimenta
9%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
1%
Frederico Antunes
<1%
Luciano do MLB
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
<1%
Ric Jones
<1%
Manuela D'Ávila 46%
Marcel Van Hattem 33%
Regis Ethur 8.8%
Rigotto 6.5%
$17,701 Vol.
$17,701 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Manuela D'Ávila
$4,552 Vol.
46%
Marcel Van Hattem
$8,297 Vol.
33%
Regis Ethur
$296 Vol.
9%
Rigotto
$446 Vol.
7%
Milton Cardoso
$304 Vol.
6%
Tania Peres
$420 Vol.
2%
Sanderson
$469 Vol.
1%
Pimenta
$1,197 Vol.
9%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
$330 Vol.
1%
Frederico Antunes
$569 Vol.
<1%
Luciano do MLB
$277 Vol.
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
$269 Vol.
<1%
Ric Jones
$276 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data, conducted in late August 2026, show a technical tie among five leading candidates—Manuela d’Ávila (PSOL), Marcel van Hattem (Novo), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Germano Rigotto (MDB), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL)—for the two Senate seats in Rio Grande do Sul, with results falling within margins of error and high undecided or blank responses exceeding 40 percent. This fragmentation sustains the tight market pricing, as voters select two names and no single contender has consolidated a clear lead. A multi-candidate debate in mid-August highlighted policy contrasts on issues like gender-based violence and institutional oversight without shifting the balance. Further separation could emerge from targeted campaigning in the final weeks, shifts in undecided voter preferences, or endorsements that consolidate support blocs ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$17,701End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data, conducted in late August 2026, show a technical tie among five leading candidates—Manuela d’Ávila (PSOL), Marcel van Hattem (Novo), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Germano Rigotto (MDB), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL)—for the two Senate seats in Rio Grande do Sul, with results falling within margins of error and high undecided or blank responses exceeding 40 percent. This fragmentation sustains the tight market pricing, as voters select two names and no single contender has consolidated a clear lead. A multi-candidate debate in mid-August highlighted policy contrasts on issues like gender-based violence and institutional oversight without shifting the balance. Further separation could emerge from targeted campaigning in the final weeks, shifts in undecided voter preferences, or endorsements that consolidate support blocs ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,701End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data, conducted in late August 2026, show a technical tie among five leading candidates—Manuela d’Ávila (PSOL), Marcel van Hattem (Novo), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Germano Rigotto (MDB), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL)—for the two Senate seats in Rio Grande do Sul, with results falling within margins of error and high undecided or blank responses exceeding 40 percent. This fragmentation sustains the tight market pricing, as voters select two names and no single contender has consolidated a clear lead. A multi-candidate debate in mid-August highlighted policy contrasts on issues like gender-based violence and institutional oversight without shifting the balance. Further separation could emerge from targeted campaigning in the final weeks, shifts in undecided voter preferences, or endorsements that consolidate support blocs ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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