**Trader sentiment for Warsaw's August 30 minimum temperature reflects high uncertainty around a forecasted overnight low of roughly 14–16 °C, with market-implied odds clustered tightly among 11 °C (45 %), 13 °C (47 %), and 15 °C (43.5 %).** Recent model runs show a transition from a cool, cloudy, and locally rainy pattern on the 29th to building high pressure and clearer skies overnight into the 30th. Light southerly winds (2–4 m/s) and dew points near 12–14 °C favor efficient radiative cooling once clouds clear, potentially driving the minimum into the low-to-mid teens. Differentiating the closely matched outcomes hinges on small variations in boundary-layer processes: the exact timing and extent of cloud clearance, soil moisture from prior rainfall (which increases thermal inertia and can limit cooling), and minor differences among global and regional models in nocturnal inversion strength. Warsaw’s urban heat-island effect may also keep the official reading 0.5–1.5 °C above rural analogs. With resolution only hours away, fresh model updates or observational trends in wind, humidity, and cloud cover will likely decide whether the minimum settles near 13 °C or shifts toward 11 °C or 15 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
13°C 46%
11°C 45%
14°C 44%
15°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
11%
11°C
45%
12°C
28%
13°C
46%
14°C
44%
15°C
43%
16°C
18%
17°C
5%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
13°C 46%
11°C 45%
14°C 44%
15°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
$130 Vol.
1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
11%
11°C
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$0 Vol.
46%
14°C
$0 Vol.
44%
15°C
$0 Vol.
43%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
5%
18°C
$135 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$67 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Warsaw's August 30 minimum temperature reflects high uncertainty around a forecasted overnight low of roughly 14–16 °C, with market-implied odds clustered tightly among 11 °C (45 %), 13 °C (47 %), and 15 °C (43.5 %).**
Recent model runs show a transition from a cool, cloudy, and locally rainy pattern on the 29th to building high pressure and clearer skies overnight into the 30th. Light southerly winds (2–4 m/s) and dew points near 12–14 °C favor efficient radiative cooling once clouds clear, potentially driving the minimum into the low-to-mid teens.
Differentiating the closely matched outcomes hinges on small variations in boundary-layer processes: the exact timing and extent of cloud clearance, soil moisture from prior rainfall (which increases thermal inertia and can limit cooling), and minor differences among global and regional models in nocturnal inversion strength. Warsaw’s urban heat-island effect may also keep the official reading 0.5–1.5 °C above rural analogs.
With resolution only hours away, fresh model updates or observational trends in wind, humidity, and cloud cover will likely decide whether the minimum settles near 13 °C or shifts toward 11 °C or 15 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$332End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Warsaw's August 30 minimum temperature reflects high uncertainty around a forecasted overnight low of roughly 14–16 °C, with market-implied odds clustered tightly among 11 °C (45 %), 13 °C (47 %), and 15 °C (43.5 %).**
Recent model runs show a transition from a cool, cloudy, and locally rainy pattern on the 29th to building high pressure and clearer skies overnight into the 30th. Light southerly winds (2–4 m/s) and dew points near 12–14 °C favor efficient radiative cooling once clouds clear, potentially driving the minimum into the low-to-mid teens.
Differentiating the closely matched outcomes hinges on small variations in boundary-layer processes: the exact timing and extent of cloud clearance, soil moisture from prior rainfall (which increases thermal inertia and can limit cooling), and minor differences among global and regional models in nocturnal inversion strength. Warsaw’s urban heat-island effect may also keep the official reading 0.5–1.5 °C above rural analogs.
With resolution only hours away, fresh model updates or observational trends in wind, humidity, and cloud cover will likely decide whether the minimum settles near 13 °C or shifts toward 11 °C or 15 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$332End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Warsaw's August 30 minimum temperature reflects high uncertainty around a forecasted overnight low of roughly 14–16 °C, with market-implied odds clustered tightly among 11 °C (45 %), 13 °C (47 %), and 15 °C (43.5 %).** Recent model runs show a transition from a cool, cloudy, and locally rainy pattern on the 29th to building high pressure and clearer skies overnight into the 30th. Light southerly winds (2–4 m/s) and dew points near 12–14 °C favor efficient radiative cooling once clouds clear, potentially driving the minimum into the low-to-mid teens. Differentiating the closely matched outcomes hinges on small variations in boundary-layer processes: the exact timing and extent of cloud clearance, soil moisture from prior rainfall (which increases thermal inertia and can limit cooling), and minor differences among global and regional models in nocturnal inversion strength. Warsaw’s urban heat-island effect may also keep the official reading 0.5–1.5 °C above rural analogs. With resolution only hours away, fresh model updates or observational trends in wind, humidity, and cloud cover will likely decide whether the minimum settles near 13 °C or shifts toward 11 °C or 15 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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