Recent ensemble forecasts from global models point to a daily minimum near 27°C in Shanghai on August 31 as the most probable outcome, driven by persistent warm, moist air under the influence of the western North Pacific subtropical high and southeasterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity levels above 80% combined with overnight cloud cover have kept recent observed lows in the 26–28°C range, consistent with climatological norms for late August in this coastal urban setting. No significant frontal systems or typhoon activity are expected to alter the pattern before resolution, though minor shifts in model guidance on wind or precipitation could adjust the exact minimum by 1°C. Traders are weighting the 27°C bin heavily ahead of final China Meteorological Administration updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 31?
27°C 53%
28°C 27%
26°C 19%
25°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
9%
24°C
15%
25°C
17%
26°C
19%
27°C
52%
28°C
27%
29°C
16%
30°C
15%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
7%
27°C 53%
28°C 27%
26°C 19%
25°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
9%
24°C
$0 Vol.
15%
25°C
$0 Vol.
17%
26°C
$0 Vol.
19%
27°C
$238 Vol.
52%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$0 Vol.
16%
30°C
$0 Vol.
15%
31°C
$0 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models point to a daily minimum near 27°C in Shanghai on August 31 as the most probable outcome, driven by persistent warm, moist air under the influence of the western North Pacific subtropical high and southeasterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity levels above 80% combined with overnight cloud cover have kept recent observed lows in the 26–28°C range, consistent with climatological norms for late August in this coastal urban setting. No significant frontal systems or typhoon activity are expected to alter the pattern before resolution, though minor shifts in model guidance on wind or precipitation could adjust the exact minimum by 1°C. Traders are weighting the 27°C bin heavily ahead of final China Meteorological Administration updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$238End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models point to a daily minimum near 27°C in Shanghai on August 31 as the most probable outcome, driven by persistent warm, moist air under the influence of the western North Pacific subtropical high and southeasterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity levels above 80% combined with overnight cloud cover have kept recent observed lows in the 26–28°C range, consistent with climatological norms for late August in this coastal urban setting. No significant frontal systems or typhoon activity are expected to alter the pattern before resolution, though minor shifts in model guidance on wind or precipitation could adjust the exact minimum by 1°C. Traders are weighting the 27°C bin heavily ahead of final China Meteorological Administration updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$238End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models point to a daily minimum near 27°C in Shanghai on August 31 as the most probable outcome, driven by persistent warm, moist air under the influence of the western North Pacific subtropical high and southeasterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity levels above 80% combined with overnight cloud cover have kept recent observed lows in the 26–28°C range, consistent with climatological norms for late August in this coastal urban setting. No significant frontal systems or typhoon activity are expected to alter the pattern before resolution, though minor shifts in model guidance on wind or precipitation could adjust the exact minimum by 1°C. Traders are weighting the 27°C bin heavily ahead of final China Meteorological Administration updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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