**Current forecasts from multiple models (Met Office, WindBorne, Yr, WeatherBug) indicate a nighttime low for São Paulo on August 30 in the 19–21°C range, consistent with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 18–20°C.** A warm, dry air mass advected from the northwest has elevated temperatures well above August climatology (typical lows near 14–17°C), with light winds, mostly clear skies, and dew points near 15–17°C limiting further radiative cooling overnight. The narrow spread between 18°C, 19°C, and 20°C outcomes reflects model sensitivity to small differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds (calm conditions enhance cooling while light breezes inhibit it), and urban heat-island effects. Clear skies overnight favor greater longwave radiation loss, but the ongoing warm advection caps how far temperatures can fall. Traders appear to weigh the balance between expected radiative cooling under stable high pressure and the persistent influence of the warm air mass. Resolution hinges on official station measurements (typically the lowest hourly or daily minimum at a reference site), with fresh model runs and real-time observations tonight expected to sharpen the picture before the 24-hour window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 30?
19°C 51%
25°C 48%
26°C 47%
17°C or below 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
46%
18°C
44%
19°C
51%
20°C
40%
21°C
24%
22°C
6%
23°C
11%
24°C
15%
25°C
48%
26°C
47%
27°C or higher
44%
19°C 51%
25°C 48%
26°C 47%
17°C or below 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
46%
18°C
$0 Vol.
44%
19°C
$0 Vol.
51%
20°C
$0 Vol.
40%
21°C
$0 Vol.
24%
22°C
$15 Vol.
6%
23°C
$169 Vol.
11%
24°C
$129 Vol.
15%
25°C
$10 Vol.
48%
26°C
$15 Vol.
47%
27°C or higher
$145 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models (Met Office, WindBorne, Yr, WeatherBug) indicate a nighttime low for São Paulo on August 30 in the 19–21°C range, consistent with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 18–20°C.** A warm, dry air mass advected from the northwest has elevated temperatures well above August climatology (typical lows near 14–17°C), with light winds, mostly clear skies, and dew points near 15–17°C limiting further radiative cooling overnight.
The narrow spread between 18°C, 19°C, and 20°C outcomes reflects model sensitivity to small differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds (calm conditions enhance cooling while light breezes inhibit it), and urban heat-island effects. Clear skies overnight favor greater longwave radiation loss, but the ongoing warm advection caps how far temperatures can fall. Traders appear to weigh the balance between expected radiative cooling under stable high pressure and the persistent influence of the warm air mass.
Resolution hinges on official station measurements (typically the lowest hourly or daily minimum at a reference site), with fresh model runs and real-time observations tonight expected to sharpen the picture before the 24-hour window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$483End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models (Met Office, WindBorne, Yr, WeatherBug) indicate a nighttime low for São Paulo on August 30 in the 19–21°C range, consistent with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 18–20°C.** A warm, dry air mass advected from the northwest has elevated temperatures well above August climatology (typical lows near 14–17°C), with light winds, mostly clear skies, and dew points near 15–17°C limiting further radiative cooling overnight.
The narrow spread between 18°C, 19°C, and 20°C outcomes reflects model sensitivity to small differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds (calm conditions enhance cooling while light breezes inhibit it), and urban heat-island effects. Clear skies overnight favor greater longwave radiation loss, but the ongoing warm advection caps how far temperatures can fall. Traders appear to weigh the balance between expected radiative cooling under stable high pressure and the persistent influence of the warm air mass.
Resolution hinges on official station measurements (typically the lowest hourly or daily minimum at a reference site), with fresh model runs and real-time observations tonight expected to sharpen the picture before the 24-hour window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$483End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple models (Met Office, WindBorne, Yr, WeatherBug) indicate a nighttime low for São Paulo on August 30 in the 19–21°C range, consistent with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 18–20°C.** A warm, dry air mass advected from the northwest has elevated temperatures well above August climatology (typical lows near 14–17°C), with light winds, mostly clear skies, and dew points near 15–17°C limiting further radiative cooling overnight. The narrow spread between 18°C, 19°C, and 20°C outcomes reflects model sensitivity to small differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds (calm conditions enhance cooling while light breezes inhibit it), and urban heat-island effects. Clear skies overnight favor greater longwave radiation loss, but the ongoing warm advection caps how far temperatures can fall. Traders appear to weigh the balance between expected radiative cooling under stable high pressure and the persistent influence of the warm air mass. Resolution hinges on official station measurements (typically the lowest hourly or daily minimum at a reference site), with fresh model runs and real-time observations tonight expected to sharpen the picture before the 24-hour window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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