Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF show Madrid's overnight minimum on August 31 likely falling to 16–19 °C amid a persistent northerly flow and clear skies that enhance radiational cooling after several days of below-average highs. This pattern follows the city's coldest August daytime reading of the century on August 28, when a 21 °C maximum reflected 8–10 °C negative anomalies tied to an anomalous upper-level trough. With minimal cloud cover and light winds expected, surface temperatures could dip further than seasonal norms of roughly 18–20 °C, elevating the market-implied probability of 16 °C or below while leaving room for model revisions in the final 48-hour updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
16°C or below 72%
17°C 22%
20°C 15%
18°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
72%
17°C
22%
18°C
14%
19°C
12%
20°C
15%
21°C
2%
22°C
7%
23°C
5%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
16°C or below 72%
17°C 22%
20°C 15%
18°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
$8 Vol.
72%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
14%
19°C
$20 Vol.
12%
20°C
$0 Vol.
15%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
7%
23°C
$0 Vol.
5%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF show Madrid's overnight minimum on August 31 likely falling to 16–19 °C amid a persistent northerly flow and clear skies that enhance radiational cooling after several days of below-average highs. This pattern follows the city's coldest August daytime reading of the century on August 28, when a 21 °C maximum reflected 8–10 °C negative anomalies tied to an anomalous upper-level trough. With minimal cloud cover and light winds expected, surface temperatures could dip further than seasonal norms of roughly 18–20 °C, elevating the market-implied probability of 16 °C or below while leaving room for model revisions in the final 48-hour updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$28End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF show Madrid's overnight minimum on August 31 likely falling to 16–19 °C amid a persistent northerly flow and clear skies that enhance radiational cooling after several days of below-average highs. This pattern follows the city's coldest August daytime reading of the century on August 28, when a 21 °C maximum reflected 8–10 °C negative anomalies tied to an anomalous upper-level trough. With minimal cloud cover and light winds expected, surface temperatures could dip further than seasonal norms of roughly 18–20 °C, elevating the market-implied probability of 16 °C or below while leaving room for model revisions in the final 48-hour updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF show Madrid's overnight minimum on August 31 likely falling to 16–19 °C amid a persistent northerly flow and clear skies that enhance radiational cooling after several days of below-average highs. This pattern follows the city's coldest August daytime reading of the century on August 28, when a 21 °C maximum reflected 8–10 °C negative anomalies tied to an anomalous upper-level trough. With minimal cloud cover and light winds expected, surface temperatures could dip further than seasonal norms of roughly 18–20 °C, elevating the market-implied probability of 16 °C or below while leaving room for model revisions in the final 48-hour updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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