Recent model consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS places Madrid’s August 31 maximum near 33–34 °C under clear skies, light southerly flow, and a strengthening surface high that favors strong daytime radiative heating over the meseta. With dew points in the single digits Celsius and negligible cloud cover or precipitation expected, afternoon temperatures should peak in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 34 °C (54.5 %). Minor model spread and typical 1–2 °C verification uncertainty keep 33 °C and 35 °C viable, while probabilities below 32 °C or above 36 °C remain negligible absent an unexpected shift in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs and the final AEMET bulletin before Monday will refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
34°C 55%
35°C 26%
33°C 20%
32°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
20%
34°C
55%
35°C
26%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 55%
35°C 26%
33°C 20%
32°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$170 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$80 Vol.
1%
31°C
$26 Vol.
1%
32°C
$144 Vol.
3%
33°C
$128 Vol.
20%
34°C
$468 Vol.
55%
35°C
$1,219 Vol.
26%
36°C
$189 Vol.
1%
37°C
$48 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$48 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$59 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS places Madrid’s August 31 maximum near 33–34 °C under clear skies, light southerly flow, and a strengthening surface high that favors strong daytime radiative heating over the meseta. With dew points in the single digits Celsius and negligible cloud cover or precipitation expected, afternoon temperatures should peak in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 34 °C (54.5 %). Minor model spread and typical 1–2 °C verification uncertainty keep 33 °C and 35 °C viable, while probabilities below 32 °C or above 36 °C remain negligible absent an unexpected shift in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs and the final AEMET bulletin before Monday will refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,579End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS places Madrid’s August 31 maximum near 33–34 °C under clear skies, light southerly flow, and a strengthening surface high that favors strong daytime radiative heating over the meseta. With dew points in the single digits Celsius and negligible cloud cover or precipitation expected, afternoon temperatures should peak in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 34 °C (54.5 %). Minor model spread and typical 1–2 °C verification uncertainty keep 33 °C and 35 °C viable, while probabilities below 32 °C or above 36 °C remain negligible absent an unexpected shift in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs and the final AEMET bulletin before Monday will refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,579End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS places Madrid’s August 31 maximum near 33–34 °C under clear skies, light southerly flow, and a strengthening surface high that favors strong daytime radiative heating over the meseta. With dew points in the single digits Celsius and negligible cloud cover or precipitation expected, afternoon temperatures should peak in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 34 °C (54.5 %). Minor model spread and typical 1–2 °C verification uncertainty keep 33 °C and 35 °C viable, while probabilities below 32 °C or above 36 °C remain negligible absent an unexpected shift in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs and the final AEMET bulletin before Monday will refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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