Recent official forecasts from sources including AEMET and numerical models indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on August 30, 2026, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This setup typically allows the overnight minimum—usually occurring around dawn—to reach 16–19 °C, with some ensemble members showing slightly cooler readings near 15 °C due to drier boundary-layer air at the city’s 650 m elevation. The 37 % market-implied probability on 13 °C or below reflects trader weighting of model spread and historical late-August lows, while the clustering around 14–16 °C captures consensus guidance for a mild but not exceptional night. No significant frontal systems or moisture advection are expected to moderate the drop before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
13°C or below 39%
14°C 27%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
39%
14°C
27%
15°C
27%
16°C
27%
17°C
15%
18°C
5%
19°C
5%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
13°C or below 39%
14°C 27%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
$7 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
15%
18°C
$0 Vol.
5%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$276 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including AEMET and numerical models indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on August 30, 2026, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This setup typically allows the overnight minimum—usually occurring around dawn—to reach 16–19 °C, with some ensemble members showing slightly cooler readings near 15 °C due to drier boundary-layer air at the city’s 650 m elevation. The 37 % market-implied probability on 13 °C or below reflects trader weighting of model spread and historical late-August lows, while the clustering around 14–16 °C captures consensus guidance for a mild but not exceptional night. No significant frontal systems or moisture advection are expected to moderate the drop before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$292End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including AEMET and numerical models indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on August 30, 2026, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This setup typically allows the overnight minimum—usually occurring around dawn—to reach 16–19 °C, with some ensemble members showing slightly cooler readings near 15 °C due to drier boundary-layer air at the city’s 650 m elevation. The 37 % market-implied probability on 13 °C or below reflects trader weighting of model spread and historical late-August lows, while the clustering around 14–16 °C captures consensus guidance for a mild but not exceptional night. No significant frontal systems or moisture advection are expected to moderate the drop before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$292End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources including AEMET and numerical models indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on August 30, 2026, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This setup typically allows the overnight minimum—usually occurring around dawn—to reach 16–19 °C, with some ensemble members showing slightly cooler readings near 15 °C due to drier boundary-layer air at the city’s 650 m elevation. The 37 % market-implied probability on 13 °C or below reflects trader weighting of model spread and historical late-August lows, while the clustering around 14–16 °C captures consensus guidance for a mild but not exceptional night. No significant frontal systems or moisture advection are expected to moderate the drop before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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