Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Cape Town of 9–11°C on August 31 under clear skies and stable high pressure, with light southerly winds promoting moderate radiational cooling overnight but limiting extremes. This aligns with typical late-winter baselines near 8–10°C and recent August observations showing no persistent cold air advection. The market's elevated implied probability on 5°C or below (42%) appears driven by uncertainty in exact minimum timing or localized urban effects rather than model consensus, while probabilities cluster around 8–9°C reflect the most likely range from official guidance. Updated runs from agencies like the South African Weather Service will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 31?
5°C or below 85%
6°C 49%
9°C 28%
8°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
85%
6°C
49%
7°C
26%
8°C
27%
9°C
28%
10°C
27%
11°C
23%
12°C
2%
13°C
20%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
2%
5°C or below 85%
6°C 49%
9°C 28%
8°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
85%
6°C
$0 Vol.
49%
7°C
$0 Vol.
26%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$0 Vol.
28%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
23%
12°C
$0 Vol.
2%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Cape Town of 9–11°C on August 31 under clear skies and stable high pressure, with light southerly winds promoting moderate radiational cooling overnight but limiting extremes. This aligns with typical late-winter baselines near 8–10°C and recent August observations showing no persistent cold air advection. The market's elevated implied probability on 5°C or below (42%) appears driven by uncertainty in exact minimum timing or localized urban effects rather than model consensus, while probabilities cluster around 8–9°C reflect the most likely range from official guidance. Updated runs from agencies like the South African Weather Service will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Cape Town of 9–11°C on August 31 under clear skies and stable high pressure, with light southerly winds promoting moderate radiational cooling overnight but limiting extremes. This aligns with typical late-winter baselines near 8–10°C and recent August observations showing no persistent cold air advection. The market's elevated implied probability on 5°C or below (42%) appears driven by uncertainty in exact minimum timing or localized urban effects rather than model consensus, while probabilities cluster around 8–9°C reflect the most likely range from official guidance. Updated runs from agencies like the South African Weather Service will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Cape Town of 9–11°C on August 31 under clear skies and stable high pressure, with light southerly winds promoting moderate radiational cooling overnight but limiting extremes. This aligns with typical late-winter baselines near 8–10°C and recent August observations showing no persistent cold air advection. The market's elevated implied probability on 5°C or below (42%) appears driven by uncertainty in exact minimum timing or localized urban effects rather than model consensus, while probabilities cluster around 8–9°C reflect the most likely range from official guidance. Updated runs from agencies like the South African Weather Service will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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