**Forecast models and official guidance point to a moderating high around 30–33°C for Wuhan on August 31, shaped by incoming cooler, moister air.** Persistent northerly flow associated with typhoon peripheral circulation is expected to increase cloud cover and trigger scattered showers or thunderstorms, limiting daytime heating compared with the mid-August heatwave that produced repeated 36–38°C readings. Multiple sources (including GFS/ECMWF-derived outputs and Chinese meteorological updates) converge on daytime maxima near 31–32°C under mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate northeast winds, with dew points remaining elevated and supporting only modest instability. The market’s concentration on 31–33°C (collectively >85% implied probability) therefore reflects both the cooling trend initiated around August 30 and the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range ensemble guidance two days before the event. Any deviation would most likely stem from slower-than-expected rain arrival or reduced cloud thickness, allowing brief clearing that could push the peak a degree or two higher. Updated model runs and local meteorological briefings over the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts for further shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on August 31?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 31?
32°C 36%
31°C 24%
33°C 20%
30°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
6%
30°C
10%
31°C
24%
32°C
36%
33°C
22%
34°C
6%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 36%
31°C 24%
33°C 20%
30°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
27°C or below
$80 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$40 Vol.
3%
29°C
$0 Vol.
6%
30°C
$25 Vol.
10%
31°C
$2 Vol.
24%
32°C
$168 Vol.
36%
33°C
$142 Vol.
22%
34°C
$13 Vol.
6%
35°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$261 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance point to a moderating high around 30–33°C for Wuhan on August 31, shaped by incoming cooler, moister air.**
Persistent northerly flow associated with typhoon peripheral circulation is expected to increase cloud cover and trigger scattered showers or thunderstorms, limiting daytime heating compared with the mid-August heatwave that produced repeated 36–38°C readings. Multiple sources (including GFS/ECMWF-derived outputs and Chinese meteorological updates) converge on daytime maxima near 31–32°C under mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate northeast winds, with dew points remaining elevated and supporting only modest instability.
The market’s concentration on 31–33°C (collectively >85% implied probability) therefore reflects both the cooling trend initiated around August 30 and the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range ensemble guidance two days before the event. Any deviation would most likely stem from slower-than-expected rain arrival or reduced cloud thickness, allowing brief clearing that could push the peak a degree or two higher. Updated model runs and local meteorological briefings over the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts for further shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$853End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance point to a moderating high around 30–33°C for Wuhan on August 31, shaped by incoming cooler, moister air.**
Persistent northerly flow associated with typhoon peripheral circulation is expected to increase cloud cover and trigger scattered showers or thunderstorms, limiting daytime heating compared with the mid-August heatwave that produced repeated 36–38°C readings. Multiple sources (including GFS/ECMWF-derived outputs and Chinese meteorological updates) converge on daytime maxima near 31–32°C under mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate northeast winds, with dew points remaining elevated and supporting only modest instability.
The market’s concentration on 31–33°C (collectively >85% implied probability) therefore reflects both the cooling trend initiated around August 30 and the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range ensemble guidance two days before the event. Any deviation would most likely stem from slower-than-expected rain arrival or reduced cloud thickness, allowing brief clearing that could push the peak a degree or two higher. Updated model runs and local meteorological briefings over the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts for further shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$853End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance point to a moderating high around 30–33°C for Wuhan on August 31, shaped by incoming cooler, moister air.** Persistent northerly flow associated with typhoon peripheral circulation is expected to increase cloud cover and trigger scattered showers or thunderstorms, limiting daytime heating compared with the mid-August heatwave that produced repeated 36–38°C readings. Multiple sources (including GFS/ECMWF-derived outputs and Chinese meteorological updates) converge on daytime maxima near 31–32°C under mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate northeast winds, with dew points remaining elevated and supporting only modest instability. The market’s concentration on 31–33°C (collectively >85% implied probability) therefore reflects both the cooling trend initiated around August 30 and the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range ensemble guidance two days before the event. Any deviation would most likely stem from slower-than-expected rain arrival or reduced cloud thickness, allowing brief clearing that could push the peak a degree or two higher. Updated model runs and local meteorological briefings over the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts for further shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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