The closely matched market odds around 68–71°F reflect substantial forecast uncertainty in the strength and timing of San Francisco’s marine layer and onshore flow on August 30. NOAA and NWS guidance show a weak thermal trough and modest sea-breeze circulation that could allow afternoon temperatures to reach the low 70s if the inversion lifts sufficiently, while stronger marine influence and earlier fog return would cap readings near 68°F. Recent model runs (GFS and ECMWF) diverge on boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds along the coast, producing a tight probability distribution. Updated short-range guidance and morning soundings tomorrow will narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 30?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 30?
68-69°F 35%
70-71°F 26%
66-67°F 22%
64-65°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
22%
68-69°F
35%
70-71°F
26%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
1%
78°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 35%
70-71°F 26%
66-67°F 22%
64-65°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
59°F or below
$143 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$115 Vol.
2%
62-63°F
$41 Vol.
4%
64-65°F
$179 Vol.
9%
66-67°F
$286 Vol.
22%
68-69°F
$365 Vol.
35%
70-71°F
$839 Vol.
26%
72-73°F
$401 Vol.
4%
74-75°F
$103 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$15 Vol.
1%
78°F or higher
$210 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 68–71°F reflect substantial forecast uncertainty in the strength and timing of San Francisco’s marine layer and onshore flow on August 30. NOAA and NWS guidance show a weak thermal trough and modest sea-breeze circulation that could allow afternoon temperatures to reach the low 70s if the inversion lifts sufficiently, while stronger marine influence and earlier fog return would cap readings near 68°F. Recent model runs (GFS and ECMWF) diverge on boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds along the coast, producing a tight probability distribution. Updated short-range guidance and morning soundings tomorrow will narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,698End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 68–71°F reflect substantial forecast uncertainty in the strength and timing of San Francisco’s marine layer and onshore flow on August 30. NOAA and NWS guidance show a weak thermal trough and modest sea-breeze circulation that could allow afternoon temperatures to reach the low 70s if the inversion lifts sufficiently, while stronger marine influence and earlier fog return would cap readings near 68°F. Recent model runs (GFS and ECMWF) diverge on boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds along the coast, producing a tight probability distribution. Updated short-range guidance and morning soundings tomorrow will narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,698End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market odds around 68–71°F reflect substantial forecast uncertainty in the strength and timing of San Francisco’s marine layer and onshore flow on August 30. NOAA and NWS guidance show a weak thermal trough and modest sea-breeze circulation that could allow afternoon temperatures to reach the low 70s if the inversion lifts sufficiently, while stronger marine influence and earlier fog return would cap readings near 68°F. Recent model runs (GFS and ECMWF) diverge on boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds along the coast, producing a tight probability distribution. Updated short-range guidance and morning soundings tomorrow will narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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