National Weather Service observations from Central Park confirmed a daily maximum of 87°F on August 14, 2026, aligning precisely with the 86–87°F bin that captured full market-implied probability. Multiple forecast models, including those from NOAA, converged on this outcome days earlier by tracking a modest warm-air advection pattern under partly cloudy skies that limited daytime heating near the seasonal average of 83–84°F. This consensus reflected typical late-summer boundary-layer conditions rather than anomalous heat. Variability in cloud cover timing or slight differences between official stations could have shifted the verified high into adjacent bins, though post-event data showed no such deviation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 14?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?
86-87°F 100.0%
81°F or below <1%
82-83°F <1%
84-85°F <1%
$78,904 Vol.
$78,904 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
81°F or below
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
100%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
<1%
100°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 100.0%
81°F or below <1%
82-83°F <1%
84-85°F <1%
$78,904 Vol.
$78,904 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
81°F or below
$2,389 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$13,390 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$15,256 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$13,986 Vol.
100%
88-89°F
$13,093 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$12,329 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$2,495 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$3,861 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$804 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$686 Vol.
<1%
100°F or higher
$616 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service observations from Central Park confirmed a daily maximum of 87°F on August 14, 2026, aligning precisely with the 86–87°F bin that captured full market-implied probability. Multiple forecast models, including those from NOAA, converged on this outcome days earlier by tracking a modest warm-air advection pattern under partly cloudy skies that limited daytime heating near the seasonal average of 83–84°F. This consensus reflected typical late-summer boundary-layer conditions rather than anomalous heat. Variability in cloud cover timing or slight differences between official stations could have shifted the verified high into adjacent bins, though post-event data showed no such deviation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$78,904End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service observations from Central Park confirmed a daily maximum of 87°F on August 14, 2026, aligning precisely with the 86–87°F bin that captured full market-implied probability. Multiple forecast models, including those from NOAA, converged on this outcome days earlier by tracking a modest warm-air advection pattern under partly cloudy skies that limited daytime heating near the seasonal average of 83–84°F. This consensus reflected typical late-summer boundary-layer conditions rather than anomalous heat. Variability in cloud cover timing or slight differences between official stations could have shifted the verified high into adjacent bins, though post-event data showed no such deviation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$78,904End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service observations from Central Park confirmed a daily maximum of 87°F on August 14, 2026, aligning precisely with the 86–87°F bin that captured full market-implied probability. Multiple forecast models, including those from NOAA, converged on this outcome days earlier by tracking a modest warm-air advection pattern under partly cloudy skies that limited daytime heating near the seasonal average of 83–84°F. This consensus reflected typical late-summer boundary-layer conditions rather than anomalous heat. Variability in cloud cover timing or slight differences between official stations could have shifted the verified high into adjacent bins, though post-event data showed no such deviation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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