Warm overnight temperatures driven by a persistent warm air mass, light winds, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies are positioning 74–75°F as the dominant outcome for New York City’s daily minimum on August 14. National Weather Service and private model guidance indicate the city will remain under southerly flow with dew points in the upper 60s, suppressing the typical nocturnal drop and keeping readings above 73°F through dawn. This aligns with the broader August outlook from the Climate Prediction Center showing a 40–50% chance of above-average temperatures across the region, consistent with recent observations of overnight lows near or above 70°F. The 72–73°F bin retains secondary support if a brief clearing allows modest cooling, but the overwhelming market-implied probability reflects high confidence in sustained warmth given current atmospheric conditions and the absence of frontal passages or stronger winds in the forecast.