Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather forecasts project a Tokyo maximum of 29–31°C for August 15 under stable late-summer conditions driven by the Pacific High, elevated humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that moderate daytime peaks. Model consensus shows limited variability absent typhoon influences or frontal systems, aligning with climatological averages near 30°C and positioning 29–31°C outcomes to capture over 88% combined implied probability. Traders weigh these official guidance ranges against typical diurnal variability and any final 24-hour model runs, while noting the narrow historical spread for mid-August maxima in the absence of extreme heat advection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
30°C 44%
29°C 27%
31°C 21%
32°C 6%
NEW
$27,099 Vol.
NEW
$27,099 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
27%
30°C
44%
31°C
21%
32°C
6%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 44%
29°C 27%
31°C 21%
32°C 6%
NEW
$27,099 Vol.
NEW
$27,099 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
$504 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$557 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,187 Vol.
1%
27°C
$4,259 Vol.
2%
28°C
$3,130 Vol.
2%
29°C
$4,983 Vol.
27%
30°C
$3,022 Vol.
44%
31°C
$2,470 Vol.
21%
32°C
$2,937 Vol.
6%
33°C
$2,122 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$1,928 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather forecasts project a Tokyo maximum of 29–31°C for August 15 under stable late-summer conditions driven by the Pacific High, elevated humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that moderate daytime peaks. Model consensus shows limited variability absent typhoon influences or frontal systems, aligning with climatological averages near 30°C and positioning 29–31°C outcomes to capture over 88% combined implied probability. Traders weigh these official guidance ranges against typical diurnal variability and any final 24-hour model runs, while noting the narrow historical spread for mid-August maxima in the absence of extreme heat advection.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$27,099End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather forecasts project a Tokyo maximum of 29–31°C for August 15 under stable late-summer conditions driven by the Pacific High, elevated humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that moderate daytime peaks. Model consensus shows limited variability absent typhoon influences or frontal systems, aligning with climatological averages near 30°C and positioning 29–31°C outcomes to capture over 88% combined implied probability. Traders weigh these official guidance ranges against typical diurnal variability and any final 24-hour model runs, while noting the narrow historical spread for mid-August maxima in the absence of extreme heat advection.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,099End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather forecasts project a Tokyo maximum of 29–31°C for August 15 under stable late-summer conditions driven by the Pacific High, elevated humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that moderate daytime peaks. Model consensus shows limited variability absent typhoon influences or frontal systems, aligning with climatological averages near 30°C and positioning 29–31°C outcomes to capture over 88% combined implied probability. Traders weigh these official guidance ranges against typical diurnal variability and any final 24-hour model runs, while noting the narrow historical spread for mid-August maxima in the absence of extreme heat advection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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