Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a narrow range for Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 15, centering on 25–26°C and producing closely matched market probabilities. Nocturnal radiative cooling under humid summer conditions typically yields lows near the seasonal average of 25–26°C, with differentiation driven by overnight cloud cover, wind speeds, and any late-day showers that can either trap heat or enhance evaporative cooling. High humidity reduces the diurnal temperature range, while urban heat island effects in the city may slightly elevate readings. Updated model runs and local observations in the final hours before midnight local time on the 15th will determine whether the low settles at 25°C or 26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
26°C 46%
25°C 42%
27°C 11%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
8%
25°C
42%
26°C
46%
27°C
11%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 46%
25°C 42%
27°C 11%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$301 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$243 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$199 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$330 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$388 Vol.
8%
25°C
$1,374 Vol.
42%
26°C
$1,090 Vol.
46%
27°C
$2,772 Vol.
11%
28°C
$910 Vol.
2%
29°C
$378 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$206 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a narrow range for Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 15, centering on 25–26°C and producing closely matched market probabilities. Nocturnal radiative cooling under humid summer conditions typically yields lows near the seasonal average of 25–26°C, with differentiation driven by overnight cloud cover, wind speeds, and any late-day showers that can either trap heat or enhance evaporative cooling. High humidity reduces the diurnal temperature range, while urban heat island effects in the city may slightly elevate readings. Updated model runs and local observations in the final hours before midnight local time on the 15th will determine whether the low settles at 25°C or 26°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$8,192End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a narrow range for Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 15, centering on 25–26°C and producing closely matched market probabilities. Nocturnal radiative cooling under humid summer conditions typically yields lows near the seasonal average of 25–26°C, with differentiation driven by overnight cloud cover, wind speeds, and any late-day showers that can either trap heat or enhance evaporative cooling. High humidity reduces the diurnal temperature range, while urban heat island effects in the city may slightly elevate readings. Updated model runs and local observations in the final hours before midnight local time on the 15th will determine whether the low settles at 25°C or 26°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,192End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a narrow range for Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 15, centering on 25–26°C and producing closely matched market probabilities. Nocturnal radiative cooling under humid summer conditions typically yields lows near the seasonal average of 25–26°C, with differentiation driven by overnight cloud cover, wind speeds, and any late-day showers that can either trap heat or enhance evaporative cooling. High humidity reduces the diurnal temperature range, while urban heat island effects in the city may slightly elevate readings. Updated model runs and local observations in the final hours before midnight local time on the 15th will determine whether the low settles at 25°C or 26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions