Latest high-resolution forecasts from KNMI’s HARMONIE-AROME and ECMWF ensemble runs position the maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 15 around 25–27 °C, reflecting modest warm-air advection under a weakening high-pressure ridge and light northerly flow. Model consensus favors 26 °C as the most probable outcome, consistent with the 37 % market-implied probability, while 25 °C and 27 °C capture the typical ensemble spread arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. Recent model updates have narrowed the range, reducing odds on extremes below 24 °C or above 28 °C. Historical August climatology (average high near 22 °C) underscores the slightly above-normal conditions currently priced by traders. Updated guidance issued overnight or early on the 15th will provide the final observational tiebreaker for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?
26°C 37%
27°C 24%
25°C 21%
24°C 10%
NEW
$14,276 Vol.
NEW
$14,276 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
5%
24°C
10%
25°C
21%
26°C
37%
27°C
24%
28°C
5%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 37%
27°C 24%
25°C 21%
24°C 10%
NEW
$14,276 Vol.
NEW
$14,276 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$362 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,680 Vol.
1%
22°C
$937 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,925 Vol.
5%
24°C
$1,829 Vol.
10%
25°C
$1,701 Vol.
21%
26°C
$2,531 Vol.
37%
27°C
$1,808 Vol.
24%
28°C
$890 Vol.
5%
29°C
$317 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$296 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest high-resolution forecasts from KNMI’s HARMONIE-AROME and ECMWF ensemble runs position the maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 15 around 25–27 °C, reflecting modest warm-air advection under a weakening high-pressure ridge and light northerly flow. Model consensus favors 26 °C as the most probable outcome, consistent with the 37 % market-implied probability, while 25 °C and 27 °C capture the typical ensemble spread arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. Recent model updates have narrowed the range, reducing odds on extremes below 24 °C or above 28 °C. Historical August climatology (average high near 22 °C) underscores the slightly above-normal conditions currently priced by traders. Updated guidance issued overnight or early on the 15th will provide the final observational tiebreaker for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$14,276End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest high-resolution forecasts from KNMI’s HARMONIE-AROME and ECMWF ensemble runs position the maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 15 around 25–27 °C, reflecting modest warm-air advection under a weakening high-pressure ridge and light northerly flow. Model consensus favors 26 °C as the most probable outcome, consistent with the 37 % market-implied probability, while 25 °C and 27 °C capture the typical ensemble spread arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. Recent model updates have narrowed the range, reducing odds on extremes below 24 °C or above 28 °C. Historical August climatology (average high near 22 °C) underscores the slightly above-normal conditions currently priced by traders. Updated guidance issued overnight or early on the 15th will provide the final observational tiebreaker for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,276End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest high-resolution forecasts from KNMI’s HARMONIE-AROME and ECMWF ensemble runs position the maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 15 around 25–27 °C, reflecting modest warm-air advection under a weakening high-pressure ridge and light northerly flow. Model consensus favors 26 °C as the most probable outcome, consistent with the 37 % market-implied probability, while 25 °C and 27 °C capture the typical ensemble spread arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. Recent model updates have narrowed the range, reducing odds on extremes below 24 °C or above 28 °C. Historical August climatology (average high near 22 °C) underscores the slightly above-normal conditions currently priced by traders. Updated guidance issued overnight or early on the 15th will provide the final observational tiebreaker for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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