Current forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and local Saudi meteorological guidance indicate a daily maximum near 39–41°C for Jeddah on August 16, underpinning the 55.5% market-implied probability for 41°C or higher and 77% combined chance of at least 40°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure, typical of peak Red Sea summer climatology, maintains clear skies and weak steering winds that limit cooling, while historical August averages of 37–39°C and recent above-normal temperature anomalies reported by Saudi Arabia’s National Center for Meteorology further support elevated readings. Short-range model runs show limited spread, though any late increase in marine-layer moisture or unexpected cloud cover could shift outcomes toward the 39°C or 38°C bins before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jeddah on August 16?
Highest temperature in Jeddah on August 16?
41°C or higher 56%
40°C 22%
39°C 11%
38°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
3%
38°C
10%
39°C
11%
40°C
22%
41°C or higher
56%
41°C or higher 56%
40°C 22%
39°C 11%
38°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
31°C or below
$372 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$372 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$372 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$96 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$18 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$10 Vol.
3%
38°C
$24 Vol.
10%
39°C
$0 Vol.
11%
40°C
$52 Vol.
22%
41°C or higher
$77 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and local Saudi meteorological guidance indicate a daily maximum near 39–41°C for Jeddah on August 16, underpinning the 55.5% market-implied probability for 41°C or higher and 77% combined chance of at least 40°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure, typical of peak Red Sea summer climatology, maintains clear skies and weak steering winds that limit cooling, while historical August averages of 37–39°C and recent above-normal temperature anomalies reported by Saudi Arabia’s National Center for Meteorology further support elevated readings. Short-range model runs show limited spread, though any late increase in marine-layer moisture or unexpected cloud cover could shift outcomes toward the 39°C or 38°C bins before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,426End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and local Saudi meteorological guidance indicate a daily maximum near 39–41°C for Jeddah on August 16, underpinning the 55.5% market-implied probability for 41°C or higher and 77% combined chance of at least 40°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure, typical of peak Red Sea summer climatology, maintains clear skies and weak steering winds that limit cooling, while historical August averages of 37–39°C and recent above-normal temperature anomalies reported by Saudi Arabia’s National Center for Meteorology further support elevated readings. Short-range model runs show limited spread, though any late increase in marine-layer moisture or unexpected cloud cover could shift outcomes toward the 39°C or 38°C bins before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,426End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and local Saudi meteorological guidance indicate a daily maximum near 39–41°C for Jeddah on August 16, underpinning the 55.5% market-implied probability for 41°C or higher and 77% combined chance of at least 40°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure, typical of peak Red Sea summer climatology, maintains clear skies and weak steering winds that limit cooling, while historical August averages of 37–39°C and recent above-normal temperature anomalies reported by Saudi Arabia’s National Center for Meteorology further support elevated readings. Short-range model runs show limited spread, though any late increase in marine-layer moisture or unexpected cloud cover could shift outcomes toward the 39°C or 38°C bins before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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