Recent forecasts from sources including the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate overnight lows for New York City on August 15, 2026, in the mid-to-upper 60s°F range under generally clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, consistent with typical mid-August climatology where average lows fall from around 71°F early in the month to 67°F later. Trader sentiment favoring the 70-71°F bin at 46% implied probability likely reflects expectations of limited radiative cooling due to urban heat island effects, elevated dew points, or a warmer-than-normal air mass, while the secondary 72-73°F outcome at 32% aligns with model runs showing minimal frontal passage. Key upcoming resolution hinges on official station readings, such as from LaGuardia or Central Park, with any unexpected cloud cover or wind shifts potentially shifting the minimum lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 15?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 15?
70-71°F 46%
72-73°F 32%
68-69°F 12%
74-75°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
57°F or below
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
5%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
46%
72-73°F
32%
74-75°F
12%
76°F or higher
3%
70-71°F 46%
72-73°F 32%
68-69°F 12%
74-75°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
57°F or below
$15 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$20 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$81 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$157 Vol.
5%
66-67°F
$161 Vol.
4%
68-69°F
$73 Vol.
12%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
46%
72-73°F
$53 Vol.
32%
74-75°F
$139 Vol.
12%
76°F or higher
$352 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate overnight lows for New York City on August 15, 2026, in the mid-to-upper 60s°F range under generally clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, consistent with typical mid-August climatology where average lows fall from around 71°F early in the month to 67°F later. Trader sentiment favoring the 70-71°F bin at 46% implied probability likely reflects expectations of limited radiative cooling due to urban heat island effects, elevated dew points, or a warmer-than-normal air mass, while the secondary 72-73°F outcome at 32% aligns with model runs showing minimal frontal passage. Key upcoming resolution hinges on official station readings, such as from LaGuardia or Central Park, with any unexpected cloud cover or wind shifts potentially shifting the minimum lower.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,057End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate overnight lows for New York City on August 15, 2026, in the mid-to-upper 60s°F range under generally clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, consistent with typical mid-August climatology where average lows fall from around 71°F early in the month to 67°F later. Trader sentiment favoring the 70-71°F bin at 46% implied probability likely reflects expectations of limited radiative cooling due to urban heat island effects, elevated dew points, or a warmer-than-normal air mass, while the secondary 72-73°F outcome at 32% aligns with model runs showing minimal frontal passage. Key upcoming resolution hinges on official station readings, such as from LaGuardia or Central Park, with any unexpected cloud cover or wind shifts potentially shifting the minimum lower.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,057End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate overnight lows for New York City on August 15, 2026, in the mid-to-upper 60s°F range under generally clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, consistent with typical mid-August climatology where average lows fall from around 71°F early in the month to 67°F later. Trader sentiment favoring the 70-71°F bin at 46% implied probability likely reflects expectations of limited radiative cooling due to urban heat island effects, elevated dew points, or a warmer-than-normal air mass, while the secondary 72-73°F outcome at 32% aligns with model runs showing minimal frontal passage. Key upcoming resolution hinges on official station readings, such as from LaGuardia or Central Park, with any unexpected cloud cover or wind shifts potentially shifting the minimum lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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