**Trader consensus strongly favors a maximum of 30°C on August 14, 2026, at 99.4% implied probability.** This reflects official Hong Kong Observatory readings and forecasts showing daytime highs reaching but not exceeding that threshold amid a southwesterly airstream, scattered showers, and increased cloud cover that limit further warming. Recent observations from stations such as Chek Lap Kok and Cheung Chau indicate afternoon temperatures around 27–29°C with high humidity, consistent with post-heatwave moderation after record-breaking conditions earlier in the month (36.9°C at the Observatory headquarters on August 9–10 under Typhoon Dolphin influence). August climatology supports typical peaks near 31°C, but current model guidance and real-time data point to suppressed maxima due to precipitation and reduced insolation. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies or a shift in steering patterns that could allow brief spikes to 31°C; however, ongoing shower activity and the timing of any diurnal peak make this unlikely before resolution. The market aggregates capital-backed assessments of these meteorological factors for precise daily maximum determination at official reference stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?
30°C 99.4%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
26°C or below <1%
$201,112 Vol.
$201,112 Vol.
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
99%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 99.4%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
26°C or below <1%
$201,112 Vol.
$201,112 Vol.
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
99%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a maximum of 30°C on August 14, 2026, at 99.4% implied probability.** This reflects official Hong Kong Observatory readings and forecasts showing daytime highs reaching but not exceeding that threshold amid a southwesterly airstream, scattered showers, and increased cloud cover that limit further warming. Recent observations from stations such as Chek Lap Kok and Cheung Chau indicate afternoon temperatures around 27–29°C with high humidity, consistent with post-heatwave moderation after record-breaking conditions earlier in the month (36.9°C at the Observatory headquarters on August 9–10 under Typhoon Dolphin influence). August climatology supports typical peaks near 31°C, but current model guidance and real-time data point to suppressed maxima due to precipitation and reduced insolation. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies or a shift in steering patterns that could allow brief spikes to 31°C; however, ongoing shower activity and the timing of any diurnal peak make this unlikely before resolution. The market aggregates capital-backed assessments of these meteorological factors for precise daily maximum determination at official reference stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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