National Weather Service forecasts for the New York City area project overnight lows near 68–72°F on August 16, driven by a persistent warm air mass with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 70–73°F outcomes, consistent with August climatology where Central Park normals sit around 70°F and recent monthly outlooks indicate above-average temperatures. Model consensus shows minimal day-to-day variability without an approaching cold front or stronger winds to enhance cooling, while any increase in cloud cover or humidity could nudge readings toward the upper end of the leading bins. Updated NWS guidance and local observations ahead of the overnight period will provide the final inputs for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 16?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 16?
72-73°F 47%
70-71°F 33%
74-75°F 16%
68-69°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
63°F or below
2%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
33%
72-73°F
47%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 47%
70-71°F 33%
74-75°F 16%
68-69°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
63°F or below
$5 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$5 Vol.
7%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
7%
68-69°F
$40 Vol.
10%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
33%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
47%
74-75°F
$33 Vol.
16%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
8%
78-79°F
$5 Vol.
2%
80-81°F
$5 Vol.
1%
82°F or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for the New York City area project overnight lows near 68–72°F on August 16, driven by a persistent warm air mass with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 70–73°F outcomes, consistent with August climatology where Central Park normals sit around 70°F and recent monthly outlooks indicate above-average temperatures. Model consensus shows minimal day-to-day variability without an approaching cold front or stronger winds to enhance cooling, while any increase in cloud cover or humidity could nudge readings toward the upper end of the leading bins. Updated NWS guidance and local observations ahead of the overnight period will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$98End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for the New York City area project overnight lows near 68–72°F on August 16, driven by a persistent warm air mass with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 70–73°F outcomes, consistent with August climatology where Central Park normals sit around 70°F and recent monthly outlooks indicate above-average temperatures. Model consensus shows minimal day-to-day variability without an approaching cold front or stronger winds to enhance cooling, while any increase in cloud cover or humidity could nudge readings toward the upper end of the leading bins. Updated NWS guidance and local observations ahead of the overnight period will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$98End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts for the New York City area project overnight lows near 68–72°F on August 16, driven by a persistent warm air mass with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 70–73°F outcomes, consistent with August climatology where Central Park normals sit around 70°F and recent monthly outlooks indicate above-average temperatures. Model consensus shows minimal day-to-day variability without an approaching cold front or stronger winds to enhance cooling, while any increase in cloud cover or humidity could nudge readings toward the upper end of the leading bins. Updated NWS guidance and local observations ahead of the overnight period will provide the final inputs for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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