Forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern over central Spain for August 15, 2026, with daytime maxima expected near 31–33°C in Madrid, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities clustered around 31–32°C. Recent runs show modest cooling from possible afternoon cloud build-up or isolated thunderstorms, reducing peak solar heating and keeping surface temperatures below seasonal extremes. Key variables include steering flow strength from the Azores high, boundary-layer moisture that could enhance or suppress convective cooling, and Madrid’s urban heat island effect, which adds 1–2°C locally under clear skies. Ensemble spread remains wide due to timing uncertainties in any frontal passage, explaining the broad distribution across 30–36°C outcomes and low implied odds for extremes above 37°C. Updated model guidance later today will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?
32°C 33%
31°C 22%
34°C 16%
33°C 13%
NEW
$35,030 Vol.
NEW
$35,030 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
4%
31°C
22%
32°C
33%
33°C
13%
34°C
16%
35°C
12%
36°C
5%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
32°C 33%
31°C 22%
34°C 16%
33°C 13%
NEW
$35,030 Vol.
NEW
$35,030 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$4,635 Vol.
4%
31°C
$5,633 Vol.
22%
32°C
$4,486 Vol.
33%
33°C
$6,842 Vol.
13%
34°C
$4,211 Vol.
16%
35°C
$3,289 Vol.
12%
36°C
$4,459 Vol.
5%
37°C
$570 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$443 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$258 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$248 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern over central Spain for August 15, 2026, with daytime maxima expected near 31–33°C in Madrid, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities clustered around 31–32°C. Recent runs show modest cooling from possible afternoon cloud build-up or isolated thunderstorms, reducing peak solar heating and keeping surface temperatures below seasonal extremes. Key variables include steering flow strength from the Azores high, boundary-layer moisture that could enhance or suppress convective cooling, and Madrid’s urban heat island effect, which adds 1–2°C locally under clear skies. Ensemble spread remains wide due to timing uncertainties in any frontal passage, explaining the broad distribution across 30–36°C outcomes and low implied odds for extremes above 37°C. Updated model guidance later today will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$35,030End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern over central Spain for August 15, 2026, with daytime maxima expected near 31–33°C in Madrid, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities clustered around 31–32°C. Recent runs show modest cooling from possible afternoon cloud build-up or isolated thunderstorms, reducing peak solar heating and keeping surface temperatures below seasonal extremes. Key variables include steering flow strength from the Azores high, boundary-layer moisture that could enhance or suppress convective cooling, and Madrid’s urban heat island effect, which adds 1–2°C locally under clear skies. Ensemble spread remains wide due to timing uncertainties in any frontal passage, explaining the broad distribution across 30–36°C outcomes and low implied odds for extremes above 37°C. Updated model guidance later today will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$35,030End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern over central Spain for August 15, 2026, with daytime maxima expected near 31–33°C in Madrid, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities clustered around 31–32°C. Recent runs show modest cooling from possible afternoon cloud build-up or isolated thunderstorms, reducing peak solar heating and keeping surface temperatures below seasonal extremes. Key variables include steering flow strength from the Azores high, boundary-layer moisture that could enhance or suppress convective cooling, and Madrid’s urban heat island effect, which adds 1–2°C locally under clear skies. Ensemble spread remains wide due to timing uncertainties in any frontal passage, explaining the broad distribution across 30–36°C outcomes and low implied odds for extremes above 37°C. Updated model guidance later today will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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