Global seismic rates from USGS records indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, derived from annual totals of about 130 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events plus fewer larger ones. With outcomes for zero or one event nearly tied in trader consensus, sentiment hinges on the Poisson-like randomness of tectonic strain release along major fault zones and subduction regions, absent any clustered aftershock sequences or unusual foreshock activity in current monitoring data. Recent August 2026 events, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia quake, illustrate how short-term variability can shift probabilities, while model forecasts offer little resolution beyond historical baselines ahead of the August 17–23 window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
0 42%
1 37%
2 18%
3 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
0
42%
1
37%
2
18%
3
9%
4
4%
5
4%
>5
1%
0 42%
1 37%
2 18%
3 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
0
$82 Vol.
42%
1
$45 Vol.
37%
2
$84 Vol.
18%
3
$96 Vol.
9%
4
$114 Vol.
4%
5
$64 Vol.
4%
>5
$16 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic rates from USGS records indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, derived from annual totals of about 130 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events plus fewer larger ones. With outcomes for zero or one event nearly tied in trader consensus, sentiment hinges on the Poisson-like randomness of tectonic strain release along major fault zones and subduction regions, absent any clustered aftershock sequences or unusual foreshock activity in current monitoring data. Recent August 2026 events, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia quake, illustrate how short-term variability can shift probabilities, while model forecasts offer little resolution beyond historical baselines ahead of the August 17–23 window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$502End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic rates from USGS records indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, derived from annual totals of about 130 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events plus fewer larger ones. With outcomes for zero or one event nearly tied in trader consensus, sentiment hinges on the Poisson-like randomness of tectonic strain release along major fault zones and subduction regions, absent any clustered aftershock sequences or unusual foreshock activity in current monitoring data. Recent August 2026 events, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia quake, illustrate how short-term variability can shift probabilities, while model forecasts offer little resolution beyond historical baselines ahead of the August 17–23 window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$502End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic rates from USGS records indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, derived from annual totals of about 130 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events plus fewer larger ones. With outcomes for zero or one event nearly tied in trader consensus, sentiment hinges on the Poisson-like randomness of tectonic strain release along major fault zones and subduction regions, absent any clustered aftershock sequences or unusual foreshock activity in current monitoring data. Recent August 2026 events, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia quake, illustrate how short-term variability can shift probabilities, while model forecasts offer little resolution beyond historical baselines ahead of the August 17–23 window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
75%
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
23%
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
40%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions