Current National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 15 point to a high near 82–83°F under mostly sunny skies with light northeast winds, driving the near-even market split between the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bins. These outcomes reflect model consensus on modest warming from seasonal normals around 83°F, tempered by onshore flow that limits extreme heat buildup and any late-day sea-breeze cooling. Key differentiating factors include potential variations in afternoon cloud cover, wind speed affecting boundary-layer mixing, and exact steering of any weak upper-level disturbances that could trim or boost the peak by a degree or two. Traders are weighting short-term observational trends and ensemble spreads more heavily than the broader monthly outlook for above-average August warmth, with resolution hinging on official Central Park readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 15?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?
82-83°F 44%
84-85°F 38%
80-81°F 10%
86-87°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
44%
84-85°F
38%
86-87°F
8%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 44%
84-85°F 38%
80-81°F 10%
86-87°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
$528 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$394 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$347 Vol.
2%
80-81°F
$768 Vol.
10%
82-83°F
$1,058 Vol.
44%
84-85°F
$890 Vol.
38%
86-87°F
$585 Vol.
8%
88-89°F
$369 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$358 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$298 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$492 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 15 point to a high near 82–83°F under mostly sunny skies with light northeast winds, driving the near-even market split between the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bins. These outcomes reflect model consensus on modest warming from seasonal normals around 83°F, tempered by onshore flow that limits extreme heat buildup and any late-day sea-breeze cooling. Key differentiating factors include potential variations in afternoon cloud cover, wind speed affecting boundary-layer mixing, and exact steering of any weak upper-level disturbances that could trim or boost the peak by a degree or two. Traders are weighting short-term observational trends and ensemble spreads more heavily than the broader monthly outlook for above-average August warmth, with resolution hinging on official Central Park readings.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$6,085End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 15 point to a high near 82–83°F under mostly sunny skies with light northeast winds, driving the near-even market split between the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bins. These outcomes reflect model consensus on modest warming from seasonal normals around 83°F, tempered by onshore flow that limits extreme heat buildup and any late-day sea-breeze cooling. Key differentiating factors include potential variations in afternoon cloud cover, wind speed affecting boundary-layer mixing, and exact steering of any weak upper-level disturbances that could trim or boost the peak by a degree or two. Traders are weighting short-term observational trends and ensemble spreads more heavily than the broader monthly outlook for above-average August warmth, with resolution hinging on official Central Park readings.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,085End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 15 point to a high near 82–83°F under mostly sunny skies with light northeast winds, driving the near-even market split between the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bins. These outcomes reflect model consensus on modest warming from seasonal normals around 83°F, tempered by onshore flow that limits extreme heat buildup and any late-day sea-breeze cooling. Key differentiating factors include potential variations in afternoon cloud cover, wind speed affecting boundary-layer mixing, and exact steering of any weak upper-level disturbances that could trim or boost the peak by a degree or two. Traders are weighting short-term observational trends and ensemble spreads more heavily than the broader monthly outlook for above-average August warmth, with resolution hinging on official Central Park readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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