Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) models indicate Munich under high pressure with southerly flow, supporting a daytime maximum near 33–35°C on August 15 under mostly clear skies and light winds. This setup favors strong solar heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures, positioning 35°C as the leading market outcome at 46.5% implied probability. Shorter-range guidance has shown limited run-to-run variability in recent days, with the 34°C and 36°C bins capturing the bulk of remaining model spread and uncertainty around peak insolation timing. Official observations from the prior 48 hours confirm a warming trend consistent with these projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 15?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 15?
35°C 50%
34°C 25%
36°C 17%
33°C 8%
NEW
$11,443 Vol.
NEW
$11,443 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
8%
34°C
25%
35°C
50%
36°C
17%
37°C
3%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 50%
34°C 25%
36°C 17%
33°C 8%
NEW
$11,443 Vol.
NEW
$11,443 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
$209 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$156 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$395 Vol.
1%
32°C
$734 Vol.
1%
33°C
$3,035 Vol.
8%
34°C
$2,292 Vol.
25%
35°C
$2,817 Vol.
50%
36°C
$921 Vol.
17%
37°C
$276 Vol.
3%
38°C
$402 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) models indicate Munich under high pressure with southerly flow, supporting a daytime maximum near 33–35°C on August 15 under mostly clear skies and light winds. This setup favors strong solar heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures, positioning 35°C as the leading market outcome at 46.5% implied probability. Shorter-range guidance has shown limited run-to-run variability in recent days, with the 34°C and 36°C bins capturing the bulk of remaining model spread and uncertainty around peak insolation timing. Official observations from the prior 48 hours confirm a warming trend consistent with these projections.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,443End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) models indicate Munich under high pressure with southerly flow, supporting a daytime maximum near 33–35°C on August 15 under mostly clear skies and light winds. This setup favors strong solar heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures, positioning 35°C as the leading market outcome at 46.5% implied probability. Shorter-range guidance has shown limited run-to-run variability in recent days, with the 34°C and 36°C bins capturing the bulk of remaining model spread and uncertainty around peak insolation timing. Official observations from the prior 48 hours confirm a warming trend consistent with these projections.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,443End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) models indicate Munich under high pressure with southerly flow, supporting a daytime maximum near 33–35°C on August 15 under mostly clear skies and light winds. This setup favors strong solar heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures, positioning 35°C as the leading market outcome at 46.5% implied probability. Shorter-range guidance has shown limited run-to-run variability in recent days, with the 34°C and 36°C bins capturing the bulk of remaining model spread and uncertainty around peak insolation timing. Official observations from the prior 48 hours confirm a warming trend consistent with these projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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