Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies project Beijing's August 15 maximum near 30–32°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C and 32°C outcomes amid typical late-summer East Asian monsoon patterns. Elevated humidity, scattered thunderstorm activity, and increased cloud cover are expected to limit daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling, consistent with climatological baselines for mid-August when highs average around 30–31°C. Model consensus from sources like the Met Office and regional guidance supports this range, with any breaks in cloud cover or delayed precipitation potentially allowing brief spikes toward 33°C, though probabilities remain low given the current atmospheric setup and short time to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
32°C 44%
31°C 35%
33°C 13%
30°C 9%
NEW
$11,307 Vol.
NEW
$11,307 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
9%
31°C
35%
32°C
44%
33°C
13%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 44%
31°C 35%
33°C 13%
30°C 9%
NEW
$11,307 Vol.
NEW
$11,307 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$1,846 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$603 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,021 Vol.
2%
30°C
$1,445 Vol.
9%
31°C
$1,137 Vol.
35%
32°C
$1,674 Vol.
44%
33°C
$1,618 Vol.
13%
34°C
$925 Vol.
3%
35°C
$441 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$329 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$267 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies project Beijing's August 15 maximum near 30–32°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C and 32°C outcomes amid typical late-summer East Asian monsoon patterns. Elevated humidity, scattered thunderstorm activity, and increased cloud cover are expected to limit daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling, consistent with climatological baselines for mid-August when highs average around 30–31°C. Model consensus from sources like the Met Office and regional guidance supports this range, with any breaks in cloud cover or delayed precipitation potentially allowing brief spikes toward 33°C, though probabilities remain low given the current atmospheric setup and short time to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,307End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies project Beijing's August 15 maximum near 30–32°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C and 32°C outcomes amid typical late-summer East Asian monsoon patterns. Elevated humidity, scattered thunderstorm activity, and increased cloud cover are expected to limit daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling, consistent with climatological baselines for mid-August when highs average around 30–31°C. Model consensus from sources like the Met Office and regional guidance supports this range, with any breaks in cloud cover or delayed precipitation potentially allowing brief spikes toward 33°C, though probabilities remain low given the current atmospheric setup and short time to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,307End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies project Beijing's August 15 maximum near 30–32°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C and 32°C outcomes amid typical late-summer East Asian monsoon patterns. Elevated humidity, scattered thunderstorm activity, and increased cloud cover are expected to limit daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling, consistent with climatological baselines for mid-August when highs average around 30–31°C. Model consensus from sources like the Met Office and regional guidance supports this range, with any breaks in cloud cover or delayed precipitation potentially allowing brief spikes toward 33°C, though probabilities remain low given the current atmospheric setup and short time to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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