Latest Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance and ensemble models point to a peak temperature of 28–32°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on August 15, with the highest probability clustered near 29–30°C. Persistent cloud cover, 20–30% chance of showers or thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly flow are the main variables that can suppress or allow brief afternoon heating. Incheon’s coastal location typically runs 1–2°C cooler than inland Seoul stations under similar synoptic conditions, while urban heat-island effects and humidity levels influence whether readings reach the upper end of model spreads. New 06Z and 12Z model runs plus KMA updates through the evening of August 14 remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the narrow spread between the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?
29°C 32%
30°C 29%
28°C 25%
31°C 8%
NEW
$17,382 Vol.
NEW
$17,382 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
7%
28°C
25%
29°C
32%
30°C
29%
31°C
8%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 32%
30°C 29%
28°C 25%
31°C 8%
NEW
$17,382 Vol.
NEW
$17,382 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
$379 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$317 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$942 Vol.
1%
27°C
$3,075 Vol.
7%
28°C
$2,978 Vol.
25%
29°C
$1,849 Vol.
32%
30°C
$2,904 Vol.
29%
31°C
$1,686 Vol.
8%
32°C
$1,691 Vol.
2%
33°C
$1,089 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$731 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance and ensemble models point to a peak temperature of 28–32°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on August 15, with the highest probability clustered near 29–30°C. Persistent cloud cover, 20–30% chance of showers or thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly flow are the main variables that can suppress or allow brief afternoon heating. Incheon’s coastal location typically runs 1–2°C cooler than inland Seoul stations under similar synoptic conditions, while urban heat-island effects and humidity levels influence whether readings reach the upper end of model spreads. New 06Z and 12Z model runs plus KMA updates through the evening of August 14 remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the narrow spread between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$17,382End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance and ensemble models point to a peak temperature of 28–32°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on August 15, with the highest probability clustered near 29–30°C. Persistent cloud cover, 20–30% chance of showers or thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly flow are the main variables that can suppress or allow brief afternoon heating. Incheon’s coastal location typically runs 1–2°C cooler than inland Seoul stations under similar synoptic conditions, while urban heat-island effects and humidity levels influence whether readings reach the upper end of model spreads. New 06Z and 12Z model runs plus KMA updates through the evening of August 14 remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the narrow spread between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,382End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance and ensemble models point to a peak temperature of 28–32°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on August 15, with the highest probability clustered near 29–30°C. Persistent cloud cover, 20–30% chance of showers or thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly flow are the main variables that can suppress or allow brief afternoon heating. Incheon’s coastal location typically runs 1–2°C cooler than inland Seoul stations under similar synoptic conditions, while urban heat-island effects and humidity levels influence whether readings reach the upper end of model spreads. New 06Z and 12Z model runs plus KMA updates through the evening of August 14 remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the narrow spread between the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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