Persistent cloud cover, frequent thunderstorms, and elevated humidity are suppressing peak temperatures in Shanghai below the seasonal August average near 32°C, positioning 30°C as the market leader at 41.5% implied probability. Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration highlight convective activity and limited solar insolation as key moderators, with consensus pointing to a narrow range around 29–31°C for August 15. These atmospheric conditions—high moisture content and ongoing precipitation—have kept trader consensus stable, with minimal shifts in recent model runs sustaining the dominance of mid-range outcomes ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
30°C 42%
29°C 28%
31°C 18%
32°C 5%
NEW
$40,570 Vol.
NEW
$40,570 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
28%
30°C
42%
31°C
18%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 42%
29°C 28%
31°C 18%
32°C 5%
NEW
$40,570 Vol.
NEW
$40,570 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
$900 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,456 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$4,370 Vol.
2%
28°C
$4,595 Vol.
5%
29°C
$6,411 Vol.
28%
30°C
$4,219 Vol.
42%
31°C
$7,696 Vol.
18%
32°C
$4,877 Vol.
5%
33°C
$1,407 Vol.
1%
34°C
$3,051 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, frequent thunderstorms, and elevated humidity are suppressing peak temperatures in Shanghai below the seasonal August average near 32°C, positioning 30°C as the market leader at 41.5% implied probability. Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration highlight convective activity and limited solar insolation as key moderators, with consensus pointing to a narrow range around 29–31°C for August 15. These atmospheric conditions—high moisture content and ongoing precipitation—have kept trader consensus stable, with minimal shifts in recent model runs sustaining the dominance of mid-range outcomes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$40,570End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, frequent thunderstorms, and elevated humidity are suppressing peak temperatures in Shanghai below the seasonal August average near 32°C, positioning 30°C as the market leader at 41.5% implied probability. Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration highlight convective activity and limited solar insolation as key moderators, with consensus pointing to a narrow range around 29–31°C for August 15. These atmospheric conditions—high moisture content and ongoing precipitation—have kept trader consensus stable, with minimal shifts in recent model runs sustaining the dominance of mid-range outcomes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40,570End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover, frequent thunderstorms, and elevated humidity are suppressing peak temperatures in Shanghai below the seasonal August average near 32°C, positioning 30°C as the market leader at 41.5% implied probability. Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration highlight convective activity and limited solar insolation as key moderators, with consensus pointing to a narrow range around 29–31°C for August 15. These atmospheric conditions—high moisture content and ongoing precipitation—have kept trader consensus stable, with minimal shifts in recent model runs sustaining the dominance of mid-range outcomes ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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