Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional outputs, indicate a stable high-pressure pattern over northern Italy with clear to mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover on August 30, favoring peak daytime heating near 30°C in Milan. Official Italian meteorological guidance and ensemble guidance converge on afternoon maxima of 29–31°C, consistent with late-summer climatology when persistent anticyclonic conditions suppress mixing and enhance surface warming. Traders have priced the 30°C outcome highest, reflecting the tight clustering of deterministic runs around this threshold while assigning lower probability to 31°C or higher given modest model spread and historical variance of roughly ±2°C around seasonal norms. Updated model guidance through the evening of August 29 has shown little shift, supporting the current market-implied distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 30?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 30?
30°C 59%
29°C 23%
31°C 14%
32°C 2.3%
NEW
$15,599 Vol.
NEW
$15,599 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
23%
30°C
59%
31°C
14%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
30°C 59%
29°C 23%
31°C 14%
32°C 2.3%
NEW
$15,599 Vol.
NEW
$15,599 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
$2,856 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,307 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$747 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$438 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$394 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$647 Vol.
1%
29°C
$3,884 Vol.
23%
30°C
$1,916 Vol.
59%
31°C
$2,162 Vol.
14%
32°C
$809 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$438 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional outputs, indicate a stable high-pressure pattern over northern Italy with clear to mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover on August 30, favoring peak daytime heating near 30°C in Milan. Official Italian meteorological guidance and ensemble guidance converge on afternoon maxima of 29–31°C, consistent with late-summer climatology when persistent anticyclonic conditions suppress mixing and enhance surface warming. Traders have priced the 30°C outcome highest, reflecting the tight clustering of deterministic runs around this threshold while assigning lower probability to 31°C or higher given modest model spread and historical variance of roughly ±2°C around seasonal norms. Updated model guidance through the evening of August 29 has shown little shift, supporting the current market-implied distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$15,599End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional outputs, indicate a stable high-pressure pattern over northern Italy with clear to mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover on August 30, favoring peak daytime heating near 30°C in Milan. Official Italian meteorological guidance and ensemble guidance converge on afternoon maxima of 29–31°C, consistent with late-summer climatology when persistent anticyclonic conditions suppress mixing and enhance surface warming. Traders have priced the 30°C outcome highest, reflecting the tight clustering of deterministic runs around this threshold while assigning lower probability to 31°C or higher given modest model spread and historical variance of roughly ±2°C around seasonal norms. Updated model guidance through the evening of August 29 has shown little shift, supporting the current market-implied distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,599End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional outputs, indicate a stable high-pressure pattern over northern Italy with clear to mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover on August 30, favoring peak daytime heating near 30°C in Milan. Official Italian meteorological guidance and ensemble guidance converge on afternoon maxima of 29–31°C, consistent with late-summer climatology when persistent anticyclonic conditions suppress mixing and enhance surface warming. Traders have priced the 30°C outcome highest, reflecting the tight clustering of deterministic runs around this threshold while assigning lower probability to 31°C or higher given modest model spread and historical variance of roughly ±2°C around seasonal norms. Updated model guidance through the evening of August 29 has shown little shift, supporting the current market-implied distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions