**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF-influenced and GFS runs show stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, producing mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds on August 31.** This setup favors daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture, supporting peak temperatures clustered around 30–32 °C (86–90 °F) in central Milan. Current guidance places the daily maximum near 31–32 °C, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 31 °C (54.5 %) and 30 °C (37 %). Ensemble spreads remain modest because steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture are not expected to shift dramatically in the final 48 hours. Historical late-August normals for Milan sit closer to 27–28 °C, so the elevated consensus reflects a persistent warm anomaly rather than an extreme outlier. No significant model disagreement or incoming frontal system appears in the latest runs that would push the peak materially higher or lower. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 30–31 °C window as the highest-probability outcome, with only low single-digit implied odds for 32 °C or warmer excursions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 31?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 31?
31°C 55%
30°C 36%
32°C 6%
29°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
5%
30°C
36%
31°C
55%
32°C
6%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
31°C 55%
30°C 36%
32°C 6%
29°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
$1,177 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$397 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$172 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$160 Vol.
1%
28°C
$114 Vol.
3%
29°C
$143 Vol.
5%
30°C
$250 Vol.
36%
31°C
$1,328 Vol.
55%
32°C
$125 Vol.
6%
33°C
$119 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$65 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF-influenced and GFS runs show stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, producing mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds on August 31.** This setup favors daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture, supporting peak temperatures clustered around 30–32 °C (86–90 °F) in central Milan.
Current guidance places the daily maximum near 31–32 °C, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 31 °C (54.5 %) and 30 °C (37 %). Ensemble spreads remain modest because steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture are not expected to shift dramatically in the final 48 hours. Historical late-August normals for Milan sit closer to 27–28 °C, so the elevated consensus reflects a persistent warm anomaly rather than an extreme outlier.
No significant model disagreement or incoming frontal system appears in the latest runs that would push the peak materially higher or lower. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 30–31 °C window as the highest-probability outcome, with only low single-digit implied odds for 32 °C or warmer excursions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,050End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF-influenced and GFS runs show stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, producing mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds on August 31.** This setup favors daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture, supporting peak temperatures clustered around 30–32 °C (86–90 °F) in central Milan.
Current guidance places the daily maximum near 31–32 °C, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 31 °C (54.5 %) and 30 °C (37 %). Ensemble spreads remain modest because steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture are not expected to shift dramatically in the final 48 hours. Historical late-August normals for Milan sit closer to 27–28 °C, so the elevated consensus reflects a persistent warm anomaly rather than an extreme outlier.
No significant model disagreement or incoming frontal system appears in the latest runs that would push the peak materially higher or lower. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 30–31 °C window as the highest-probability outcome, with only low single-digit implied odds for 32 °C or warmer excursions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,050End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF-influenced and GFS runs show stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, producing mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds on August 31.** This setup favors daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture, supporting peak temperatures clustered around 30–32 °C (86–90 °F) in central Milan. Current guidance places the daily maximum near 31–32 °C, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 31 °C (54.5 %) and 30 °C (37 %). Ensemble spreads remain modest because steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture are not expected to shift dramatically in the final 48 hours. Historical late-August normals for Milan sit closer to 27–28 °C, so the elevated consensus reflects a persistent warm anomaly rather than an extreme outlier. No significant model disagreement or incoming frontal system appears in the latest runs that would push the peak materially higher or lower. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 30–31 °C window as the highest-probability outcome, with only low single-digit implied odds for 32 °C or warmer excursions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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